Next Week's Macro Outlook: U.S. May CPI Data Released on Wednesday as Follows:
Monday 22:00, U.S. April Wholesale Sales MoM;
Monday 23:00, U.S. May NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations;
Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May CPI Data;
Wednesday 22:30, U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories for the Week Ending June 6;
Thursday 20:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending June 7, U.S. May PPI;
Friday 22:00, Preliminary Value of U.S. June 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectations, Preliminary Value of U.S. June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
The U.S. May CPI report released next Wednesday will test market optimism about interest rate cuts, as it may show that the recent downward trend in inflation has stalled. According to the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model, overall CPI for May is expected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year, higher than the 2.3% last month; core CPI is expected to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from last month. Analysts expect the annualized three-month inflation rate for core goods to peak in early fall (4%-5%), slightly lower and later than the forecast before the suspension of "equivalent tariffs" on May 8.
