X will show real-time Polymarket odds under trending posts to turn social conversations into market signals.
Polymarket replaces Kalshi after compliance issues blocked the earlier prediction partnership on the X platform.
X will use Grok AI to explain market shifts using post activity trade flows and historical prediction data.
X has selected crypto prediction market Polymarket as its official prediction partner. The announcement follows the collapse of an earlier deal with Kalshi. With Polymarket, X aims to display real-time betting probabilities directly on users’ timelines. This partnership blends market data with social conversations in a way that avoids traditional financial regulations.
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Polymarket allows users outside the U.S. to place bets on global events using blockchain technology. The platform processed over $8 billion in volume last year, despite restricting access in the United States. This model aligns more closely with X’s global strategy and decentralization goals.
Previous Kalshi Deal Faced Regulatory Barriers
Earlier this year, Kalshi briefly announced a partnership with X. However, within hours, the companies withdrew the statement and removed all references. Kalshi is a regulated U.S. exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This structure created compliance issues that limited its ability to scale internationally.
As a result, X abandoned the Kalshi deal and looked for a more flexible partner. The shift to Polymarket signals a preference for blockchain-powered services that do not require U.S. regulatory approval. It also reflects Elon Musk’s belief that crowdsourced forecasts can be more accurate than traditional polling.
Polymarket Odds Appear Under Trending Posts
With the new integration, users will see a small widget under posts tied to active Polymarket markets. The widget shows real-time odds, event summaries, and recent price changes. Users can tap to get more details or follow the market for updates. However, U.S. users will be restricted from accessing betting features due to legal limitations.
This feature turns trending events such as elections, economic decisions, or sports outcomes into visible, data-driven insights. X hopes this will increase engagement while providing new ways for users to interpret global developments.
Grok Adds Context With AI Summaries
X will also use its AI assistant, Grok, to provide market insights. Grok scans posts, blockchain data, and past trends to explain why odds are moving. It highlights top posts that influenced changes and alerts users to unusual activity. Users will receive short summaries without needing to search through long threads.
In future updates, X may allow verified users to share alternate interpretations. This would give users more balanced information without removing the real-time data stream. As this feature rolls out, X must navigate regulatory boundaries to avoid turning into an unlicensed betting platform.
