Non-farm data is out!
Last night's big non-farm data met expectations, and it’s rumored that Trump and Musk have reconciled. Bitcoin rebounded sharply to $1053, currently fluctuating around $104,700. After the non-farm employment report was published, the market expects a 99.9% chance that the Fed will not cut interest rates in June; the market also expects an 83.4% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, up from 68.6% just a day earlier; until September, the market predicts a 54.6% chance that the Fed will restart rate cuts, while the probability of maintaining rates in September is at 35.9%.
Bitcoin:
After a rebound on the four-hour level, $106,000-$107,000 remains a key resistance area. If it cannot break through, it might return to test the $100,000 support. However, due to improved market sentiment, the probability of a sharp decline has decreased, and over the weekend, it is more likely to fluctuate in the $100,000-$105,000 range.
Ethereum:
The short-term support is between $2320 and $2360. If Bitcoin stabilizes, Ethereum is expected to consolidate around $2400, and it will further test the $2230-$2260 range if it falls below $2380.
From the capital flow perspective, the main funds are still testing the strength of retail buying, but the short-term selling pressure has weakened. The market is likely to maintain a sideways or slightly fluctuating trend over the weekend, temporarily observing and waiting for clearer directional signals.
The altcoins have dropped significantly again these days.
What stage was the market in before May? At that time, the market was basically: a period of decline -> a slight rebound -> followed by another drop. The decline was the main theme; many people couldn't hold on and had to sell at a loss, while some, seeing a slight rebound, excitedly rushed to buy, only to find themselves buying at the peak and getting trapped.
On May 29th, the market suddenly rallied, plus some good news outside, many people thought a bull market had truly arrived, full of confidence, rushing to increase positions and refusing to sell, and what happened? The market slammed them back down hard again.
I have reminded before that once most people in the market feel it's time to buy, those large funds may likely short the market instead. The same goes for Bitcoin; when it rises to a key position, many people think it will break through, rush in to buy, and then the price drops sharply, getting them trapped.
We estimate that we may need to wait for Bitcoin (BTC) to fall below the key psychological price of $100,000 for market sentiment to completely collapse, but it is also because this position is too important.
If the market slowly rises, it might only reach around $109,500, at which point you should consider selling (running away). Don't chase the buying; conversely, if the market truly drops to around $97,000 and then hovers there for a few days before starting to rise, that might actually be a 'washing out the indecisive buyers, then truly pushing up' rhythm. In that case, the likelihood of breaking $109,500 later would be even greater.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently rebounding, just hitting a previous important position (where it used to support the price is now blocking the rise). This hurdle is hard to cross; if you are trading short-term with quick in-and-out, I suggest selling part of your position at this level.
But if you plan to hold for a long time, there's no need to be too anxious. Even if it really drops back to around $2200, that would be the worst-case scenario, and it’s not a big problem. Moreover, the decline has already completed half; as long as the rhythm is not disrupted, it might stabilize soon.
MASK's sharp decline, are the big players running away?
Regarding the sharp drop of $MASK yesterday, to be honest, it looks like a sign of the big players running away. That sudden selloff at a high position, and the instant dive, is not something that normal market conditions can produce. It’s not just shaking out, it’s a brutal sell-off, accurately executed, as if they cut off the last wave of retail investors and walked away.
In the short term, we need to keep a close eye on its performance in the coming days. If the price can stabilize and fluctuate in the range of 1.8 to 2.1, there might still be some hope. In plain terms, it means the big players are still in, possibly just washing out the chasing buyers before preparing for another wave. If it can really stay stable in this range without falling, there might be a chance to push up again or even pull back for a second top.
But if not, if it continues to drop sharply in the next couple of days without a decent rebound, then there’s basically no doubt—this is a run for it, leaving no survivors.
At that time, the mindset has to be completely reversed. It’s not about buying low to speculate on a rebound, but rather shorting high and following the trend. Especially in situations where the pullback is weak and falls back at 2.0, that’s a typical bear trap set up, entering short is highly efficient. The take profit level should be looked at around 1.5, or even testing lower at 1.2 to 1.3.
BC Big Cousin, you haven't jumped on board yet, are you still thinking of waiting?
Let me say, I chased it at 5M yesterday, then got out at around 7M, making a big profit again.
Why get out? I think the term 'BC' doesn't have enough influence and hasn't truly sparked the 'meme effect.' 'Big Cousin' as a complete term is too long and not concise enough for meme propagation; splitting it into 'Big' and 'Cousin' is not catchy enough. In contrast, 'Cousin' directly refers to 'brother,' it's short and powerful, frequently mentioned with a profile picture change, creating a strong sense of involvement and precise dissemination, like a carefully planned strategy! After discussing with friends, we decided to promote the term 'Cousin.' As for which term can become popular, it depends on the market and the choices of the big players!
I hope BSC can reach new highs, and everyone can have fun!
Xiao Mei's recommendation today
$Ana
$Ana170K market cap just launched, rose to $470K in 15 minutes, nearly tripling, held it after breaking even, today there’s not much gold dog, it belongs to the hotter new dog today!
$FARCTOIN
I just checked the market and found that the overall strength of the $FARCTOIN token is quite good. I opened a small long position to feel the market's volatility.
