Current situation (June 7, 2025):
- Price: ~$2.90–$3.10 (USD, based on current data).
- Context: Filecoin is a decentralized data storage network created by Protocol Labs. It allows users to rent out unused disk space for FIL tokens. Market capitalization: ~$1.8–$2 billion (ranking ~40–50). TVL: ~$100 million.
Technical forecast for 2026:
- Prices (based on analytics):
- Optimistic: $5–$12.51 (increase of 70–300%) in a bull market and rising demand for decentralized storage.
- Neutral: $4–$7 (increase of 30–130%).
- Pessimistic: $0.31–$2.30 in case of correction or competition.
- Levels:
- Support: $2.50–$2.80, $1.50–$2.00.
- Resistance: $3.50–$4.00, $5–$6.60.
- Trend: Bullish on weekly charts (50 MA up, RSI ~50–60 neutral). Possible consolidation or correction (MACD is slowing down).
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Growth of Web3 and DeFi: the launch of Filecoin Virtual Machine (FVM) supports dApps and DataDAO.
- Partnerships: Anchorage, Tokensoft, CMS Holdings (wFIL on Ethereum).
- Integrations: Solana, TON, Chainlink for oracles.
- Institutional interest: potential ETFs, support from 'Made in USA' (Trump).
- Data storage for AI and NFT is growing (Filecoin Foundation, FIL Dev Summit).
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC classifies FIL as a security.
- Competition: Arweave, Siacoin, centralized clouds (AWS).
- Volatility: dependence on BTC/ETH, token unlock (~$320 million in 2025).
- Low demand for decentralized storage if Web3 does not scale.
Recommendation:
- For investors: Buy on corrections to $2.50–$2.80, stop loss below $1.50. Target: $5–$7. Staking for rewards (APR ~5–10%).
- For traders: Buy on breakout at $4, target $6.60–$7.80. Sell below $2.50, target $1.50–$2.00.
- Risk: 1–2% of deposit, consider volatility and unlocks.
Risks: Regulation, competition, low demand, BTC decline.
