1. CEX (Centralized Exchange)

  • Trend: Compliance survival → Traditional finance integration → On-chain transformation

  • Key variables:

    • By 2025: Custody separation (such as Coinbase Base chain), automated proof of reserves

    • By 2027: Widespread trading licenses for security tokens (similar to traditional brokerages)

    • By 2030: 80% of mainstream CEX will integrate on-chain DEX aggregators (solving liquidity fragmentation)

  • Survival rule: Compliance costs eliminate small and medium players, Top 5 market share exceeds 75% (currently about 50%)

2. DEX (Decentralized Exchange)

  • Explosion point:

    • By 2025: Uniswap V4 Hook ecosystem spawns vertical DEX (such as options DEX)

    • By 2026: Cross-chain DEX aggregator daily trading volume surpasses CEX spot

    • By 2028: Anti-MEV architecture becomes standard for DEX (such as Flashbot SUAVE)

3. PayFi (Payment Finance)

4. DeFi 2.0 (Lending/Derivatives)

  • Lending Protocol:

    • From over-collateralization → Credit profile lending (such as Centrifuge + Chainlink oracle)

    • RWA collateral will account for 35% of lending TVL (only 8% in 2023)

  • Derivatives DEX:

    • By 2025, decentralized perpetual contract trading volume will account for 15% of total derivatives (currently <3%)

    • GMX v3 and dYdX V4 will solve liquidity layering issues

5. InfoFi (Information Finance)

  • Breakthrough point:

    • Combination of on-chain data and AI agents (such as Fetch.ai agents for automated trading)

    • Social platform integrated token rewards (Farcaster validated model)

6. RWA (Real World Assets)

  • Development path:

    1. 2024: Tokenization of government bonds (Ondo Finance model)

    2. 2026: Commercial paper/private equity on-chain (KKR and Blackrock entering)

    3. 2028: Fragmentation of real estate legalized in regulatory-friendly areas

  • Key infrastructure:

    • Legal entity SPV automation (such as Provenance Network)

    • Cross-chain asset proof (requires Polygon ID level solutions)

7. Meme coins

  • Evolutionary theory:

    • From community consensus → Practical empowerment (such as BONK integrating Solana DApp)

    • By 2025, the first Meme + AI agent project will appear (holding tokens to invoke AI services)

  • Regulatory risk: The US SEC will eliminate Meme projects without actual control

2. Ecological niche survival prospects and power transfer

3. Ordinary practitioner breakthrough strategy matrix

2. Ecological niche positioning strategy

  • Technical background individuals:

    • Engage in RWA protocol development (requires Solidity + traditional finance knowledge)

    • Research and develop DeFi anti-MEV solutions (such as SUAVE application chain)

  • Non-technical background individuals:

    • Become a governance expert: Professional proxy voting + DAO consulting (such as Messari governance reports)

    • On-chain KOL: Dune data dashboard creation + Alpha community operations

3. Risk hedging recommendations

  • Regulatory arbitrage avoidance: Prioritize Singapore/Hong Kong licensed projects

  • Technical betting diversification: Simultaneously layout modular blockchain (Celestia ecosystem) and monolithic chains (Solana ecosystem)

  • Income diversification: Protocol salary (USDC) + Governance revenue (tokens) + Airdrop expectations running in parallel

4. Endgame judgment: Web3 power map in 2028

  1. Traffic entry:

    • CEX exists as a fiat channel, but >50% of trading volume occurs on-chain

  2. Value anchor:

    • RWA and protocol genuine revenue replace inflationary token economy

  3. Power center:

    • Borrowing protocols with on-chain credit data > Exchanges

    • KOL community token market value exceeds some Layer 1

  4. Retail opportunities:

    • Specialized airdrop studios earn over a million dollars annually

    • Governance delegation becomes a new form of passive income

Practitioner Action Program: Complete RWA/InfoFi skill positioning by 2025, establish on-chain credit assets by 2027, to occupy a high ecological niche in the wave of compliance. Avoid falling into Meme speculation and outdated technology stacks (such as simply issuing ERC20 tokens), and move towards genuine protocol revenue and compliant asset channels.