$BTC Direction: Buy on Dips
Core Logic:
The long-term trend (1 day) remains bullish, the 4-hour cloud support is effective, and the 15-minute lower shadow shows strong buying pressure. However, insufficient volume requires waiting for a pullback to enter.
Specific Plan:
Entry Price: 103,900
Near the 4-hour support at 103,811.0 + the 30-minute EMA21 (104,323.7) resonance zone.
About 0.63% space from the current price of 104,553, meeting the 0.2% differential requirement.
Target Price: 105,000 (+1.06%)
Corresponding to the 1-day high of 105,320.4 and the 30-minute turtle buy entry price of 104,931.5.
Potential Profit Space: 1.06%.
Stop Loss: 103,500 (-0.38%)
Located 0.3% below the 4-hour low of 103,811 to avoid being swept out during fluctuations.
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.8 (reasonable profit-loss ratio).
Risk Control Measures:
Position Management: ≤5% of total funds to avoid ETF capital flow volatility risk.
Signal Verification:
If the 30-minute MACD golden cross (0.0→1.0) or BB lower band contact (0.0→1.0), increase position by 5%.
If an hourly crash warning (1.0) is triggered, close positions and observe.
Time Window: Hold positions ≤4 hours to avoid fluctuations at the US market open.
Alternative Strategy (Short):
If the price breaks below 103,500:
Short Entry: 103,400, Target 102,500 (Fib 61.8%), Stop Loss 104,000.
Trigger Conditions: 4-hour SAR reversal (0.0→1.0) or TD sequence bearish 9 turns.
Technical aspects are for reference only, based on predictions.