"Has the 'Crypto Supercycle' not yet started?"
Core Insights Overview
Anomalous Phenomenon: Bitcoin breaks through $110,000, but the altcoin market remains sluggish
Key Findings: The past three bull markets were triggered by specific macroeconomic conditions
Warning Signals: Current M2 growth rate and PMI index indicate liquidity has not truly been released
Ultimate Prediction: The 12th 'Ring of Economic Pain' is the spark that will ignite the bull market
1. Disruptive Market Truth
Despite Bitcoin having risen 588% since the bottom of 2022, the market shows three major anomalies:
Institutional funds dominate (BlackRock's BTC holdings exceed $25 billion)
Altcoins/DeFi severely lag behind (average increase of the TOP 50 altcoins is only 83%)
Market volatility is at a historical low (30-day volatility 21%, only 1/3 of the same period in 2021)
This suggests that the current market is essentially an 'institutional bull market', rather than a true 'liquidity bull market'.
2. Decoding the 12 'Liquidity Magic Rings'
By analyzing all crypto cycles from 2009 to 2022, we find that the essence of bull markets is a product of the global liquidity transmission chain:
See the end of the article
3. Key Indicator Warnings
M2 Money Supply: Current year-on-year growth rate 1.2%, far below the peak of 26% in 2021
Manufacturing PMI: Latest value 49.3, not breaking through the 'frenzy threshold' of 60
Government Bond Yield Spread: 10-year-2-year yield remains inverted by 38bps, indicating recession risk
"When the Chicago Fed National Activity Index falls below -0.7, the Fed will 100% initiate rate cuts"
4. Historical Cycle Comparison Table
See the end of the article
5. Ultimate Prediction: Conditions for the Arrival of the 12th Ring
When the following signals appear simultaneously, the true supercycle will begin:
US unemployment rate exceeds 5%
S&P 500 drops over 20% in a single quarter
Fed officially announces 'unconditional easing'
Treasury initiates special stimulus plan
Current Progress: Only meets condition 1 (unemployment rate 5.1%)
Professional Advice
Position Allocation: Maintain core positions (BTC/ETH) + reserve 30% cash
Observation Checklist:
Fed FOMC meeting minutes
US Treasury TGA account changes
Bank of Japan YCC policy adjustments
Timing for Entry: Fully increase positions in altcoins when M2 growth rate exceeds 15%
"The real madness has not yet begun, but smart money has already caught the scent of blood" — Grayscale Investments Chief Strategist
[Copyright Statement] Data source for this article: FRED, TradingView, CoinMarketCap; analysis model developed exclusively by @On-Chain Master Team
