The narrow fluctuations of the dog dealers are the calm before the storm; the script for a double explosion in both long and short positions is quietly being written in the Bollinger Bands.
Technical analysis: Wobbly 'false golden cross'.
Bollinger Bands are constricting, a shift is imminent: ETH price is stuck around $2470, with the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands narrowing into a 'suffocation zone', similar to the pattern before the sharp drop on May 25. Once it opens, a one-sided trend is highly likely. The current middle track at $2470 becomes the lifeline for both bulls and bears.
MACD high-level golden cross, hidden danger: On the surface, DIF (30.39) crossing above DEA (20.52) is a golden cross, but the red column momentum is weak and price is not rising, forming a 'top divergence' trap. This position is relatively high (similar to the false golden cross leading to a sharp drop on May 13), and a death cross could occur at any time.
Key levels are easier to go down than to go up:
Support level $2455: previous low + Bollinger lower band. Breaking this level will trigger large short positions to crash, targeting $2400, $2379.
Resistance level $2483: 4-hour middle track + moving average pressure. A breakthrough requires huge capital; otherwise, the risk of a false breakout is extremely high.
News analysis: Good news has run its course, while bad news lurks.
Short-term bearish pressure:
US Treasury yields soar close to 5%, inflation expectations rise, and the probability of the Fed cutting rates in June plummets, leading to a withdrawal from risk assets.
Coinbase ETH premium turns negative, indicating continuous selling by US institutions; Asian large holders are also selling, with Binance net selling over $30 million in a single day.
A large number of short positions are lurking in the $2580-$2600 area, and dog dealers may create a 'false breakout to explode shorts and then crash'.
Long-term bullish factors can't save the immediate fire: Although the spot ETF has passed (potential inflow of $50 billion) and the Pectra upgrade is a long-term positive, the market's willingness to sell pressure is stronger in June, and funds tend to cash out.
Operation summary: Better to miss than to make a mistake.
Spot holders: Consider reducing positions above $2470, holding funds to wait for below $2400 (200-day average at $2424 is strong support) before considering re-entry.
Contract traders:
Short conditions: Price falls below $2455 to short, stop loss set at $2485, target looking towards $2379-$2350.
Long conditions: Price must break through $2483 with volume and hold steady; can take a small position to chase long, stop loss at $2450, target $2520 (must be quick in and out).
The dog dealers' sickle only cuts the greedy leeks - protect the principal, waiting for the direction of the Bollinger Bands to open is more important than betting on direction.
Opportunities are fleeting, a pullback is imminent, bottom fishing for spot, the profits from altcoins are waiting for you! Doubling is not a dream; click on the avatar to follow me, let's join the bull market feast!$ETH #ETHETFsApproved
