Direct Hit on the XRP Long-Short Life and Death Line: Is 2 Dollars a Golden Pit or a Guillotine?

The short army is pressing in, with 2 dollars hanging by a thread.

Whales flee overnight: On June 7, 53 million XRP were dumped on Coinbase, with the timing matching a 7% price drop, on-chain data suggests that giant whales may have sensed the risk in advance.

Short leverage strikes: $91.66 million in short positions accumulated in the $2.26-$1.96 range, forming a 'death resistance zone.' If it falls below $2, it could trigger a 13% level chain liquidation.

Retail confidence collapses: The proportion of holdings by new investors skyrocketed from 23% to 62.8%, but since February, capital inflow has plummeted. Giant whales have sold off over $1 billion in positions in 14 days, and retail investors are collectively lying flat as the market crashes.

Technical 'death triangle' warning

Weekly chart breaks critical point: The daily chart forms a descending wedge + bear flag double kill pattern, with a 4-hour MACD death cross expanding, and RSI breaking below 46.

Fibonacci stranglehold zone: If $2 is lost, the next support points directly to $1.87 (the rebound starting point in 2024), in extreme scenarios it could plummet to $1.56.

Exchanges have ample ammunition: Derivatives open interest has sharply decreased from $7.8 billion to $3.17 billion, liquidity exhaustion amplifies volatility, and the cost for market manipulators to dump has drastically reduced.

Three sparks for a long rally comeback

Historical whale buying memory: After falling below $1.95 twice in 2025, it triggered a violent rebound of over 70%. There are institutional-level buy orders lurking below $2.

Technical indicators oversold recovery: 1-hour/4-hour charts show bottom divergence signals, if it breaks $2.28 with volume, it may activate a 22% increase.

Long-term fundamentals are solid: Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit battle at the end of 2025, expansion of cross-border payment cooperation, and expectations for a spot ETF are not extinguished.

Battle Manual

Defense strategy (breakdown scenario)

Clear-out line: Daily closing price confirming a drop below $1.96

Bottom-fishing area: $1.87→$1.74→$1.56 tiered orders.

Offensive strategy (hold $2)

Breakthrough signal: 2-hour chart stabilizing at $2.26 + volume increasing by 150%

Target ladder: $2.4 (short-term take profit) → $2.6

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