Is Bitcoin repeating the 2021 playbook? Leverage, hype, and explosive risks 💣🧵

Historically, each Bitcoin cycle has topped 12–18 months after the halving.

That’s the pattern.

And right on cue, Saifedean Ammous says we’re now entering “very shaky ground.”

History says this is danger territory, but every cycle has its twist.

So IF the halving cycle dynamics continue…

We’re either in the top zone now, or heading straight for it.

But this cycle broke precedent: a new ATH before the halving.

That’s never happened.

Since then, we have lagged past cycles.

But the buyers look very different…

2021 was driven by traders.

2025 is being driven by allocators.

Ben Werkman, CIO of Swan:

“These corporations… they’re long-only buyers. They’re not traders of Bitcoin.”

They’re not flipping for profit.

They’re locking it up. Permanently.

Saif also sounded the alarm on leverage.

His warning?

“If your business can’t survive an 80% Bitcoin drawdown—rework it now.”

Bitcoin Treasury Companies are borrowing billions to stack.

If the floor drops… the consequences could be systemic.

Yes, leverage is rising.

But Galaxy Research mapped it, and most of it doesn’t mature until 2027 or beyond.

This isn’t speculative margin.

It’s slow, strategic accumulation by companies betting on Bitcoin long term.

And while attention wanes, conviction grows.

62% of all Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year.

That’s historic dormancy.

We last saw this in 2016 and 2020—right before liftoff.

Even if short-term price action stays choppy… Zoom out.

Trump and Warren both want to scrap the debt ceiling.

That’s bipartisan alignment on infinite money printing.

Today, Trump called for a 1% rate cut—“rocket fuel!”

The dollar has no brakes. Bitcoin has no governor.

So maybe this is a double top.

Or maybe it’s a pressure cooker with the lid rattling.

Either way, Bitcoin’s supply is tightening while fiat explodes.

That’s not a setup for failure. That’s a setup for detonation.

Want to go deeper?

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