$BTC Current Price: 💲$104,484.41 | 📈 +2.66% Daily | 🔋 "POW Volatility" Sector
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📊 Key Observations
1. 📈 Price & Trend
Trading right at EMA(7): $104,481.09
Above EMA(25): $104,388.64 → short-term trend at decision point
Well above EMA(99): $96,997.72 → long-term bullish structure intact
24h Range: $101,535.61 → $105,333.00 → price consolidating mid-range
2. 📉 Momentum Indicators
RSI(6): 46.96 → neutral zone
MACD:
Histogram: -848.68
DIF: 678.82 < DEA: 1,527.50 → bearish but converging
Volume Collapse:
Current: 631.66 BTC
MA(5): 13,217 BTC | MA(10): 14,408 BTC → 📉 -95% drop from avg
3. 🧱 Key Levels
Resistance:
$105,333 (24h high)
$107,214.82 (swing high)
$111,980.00 (macro)
Support:
$104,388 (EMA25)
$104,000 (psychological)
$101,535.61 (24h low)
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📅 Today’s Price Prediction
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Hold above $104,481 (EMA7) → potential push to $105,333 → $107,214, if volume recovers >10K BTC
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Break below $104,388 (EMA25) → drop toward $103,000 → $101,535
⚖️ Most Likely Range: $104,000 – $105,500 (tight consolidation)
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🎯 Trade Strategy
✅ 1. Long Setup (Breakout Buy)
Entry Triggers:
1-hour close above $104,500
Volume > 8,000 BTC
MACD convergence (DIF rising)
Targets:
🎯 $105,000 (partial)
🎯 $105,333 → $107,214
Stop Loss: $104,300
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❌ 2. Short Setup (Breakdown Sell)
Entry Triggers:
Breakdown of $104,388 (EMA25)
RSI <45
Volume > 7,000 BTC
Targets:
🎯 $103,500
🎯 $101,535
Stop Loss: $104,600
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⚠️ Critical Risk Factors
1. 📉 Volume Collapse:
Lowest participation in weeks – high slippage potential
2. ⚡ EMA Squeeze:
EMA(7) & EMA(25) separated by <0.1% – volatile move pending
3. 📊 MACD Divergence:
Price stable but MACD bearish → beware false upside breakouts
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🛡️ Risk Management
💰 Position Size: Max 5% of portfolio
📈 Leverage:
Spot/Margin: Max 3x
Futures: Max 5x
🔄 Hedging: Pair with Gold, USDT, or DXY-sensitive assets
📌 Confirmation Rule: Wait for 2H volume >5K BTC for directional confidence
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✅ Conclusion & Action Plan
Trade the EMA(7) vs EMA(25) battle zone:
📥 Go Long above $104,500 → TP: $105,333 → $107,214
📉 Go Short below $104,388 → TP: $103,500 → $101,535
🧠 Scalp for 0.5–1% due to volume anomaly
🧊 Avoid oversized trades – thin volume = erratic movement risk
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📌 Monitor Bitcoin ETF flows & macro indicators.
📉 This is not financial advice – execute based on your personal risk profile.
