Let's talk about prediction markets and information finance, sparked by the collaboration between Polymarket and Twitter.
When information is assetized, when cognition can be bet on, and when opinions have a price, we are entering a market structure where gaming precedes truth, and cognition surpasses reality.
Prediction markets are no longer just speculative tools but have become the infrastructure for the financialization of information.
The following four keywords might help us reunderstand this change.
1｜Information Assetization
The essence of prediction markets is to price information.
In the traditional world, information is just 'content': you see it, you share it, you debate it, but you don't pay for it.
The emergence of prediction markets has made information for the first time a 'bettable event'; even if it hasn't happened yet or its truth is difficult to discern, as long as there is uncertainty, it can be packaged into bettable financial products.
Whether it's 'Will Trump win the election?', or 'Will a certain country go to war?', or even 'Will a certain celebrity get engaged?', all can have odds opened, liquidity gathered, and be priced by the market.
The boundaries of information are no longer determined by reality but by market interest.
2｜Financialization of Public Narratives
Arguing, voting, and sharing on X have always influenced narratives; and prediction markets simply turn that influence into price curves.
Every tweet, every social media spat, every viral video essentially influences the public's judgment of 'the likelihood of future events'.
Prediction markets transform this fluid cognitive competition into stable betting behavior:
Group sentiment = Direction of chips
Change in popularity = Fluctuation of probability prices
Manipulation of public opinion = A form of 'cognitive insider trading'
Information is no longer just information; it is a bettable asset.
Narratives are no longer just culture; they are a priceable liquidity pool.
3｜Reconstruction of Economic Incentives for User Behavior
Expression equals betting, information equals speculation.
On traditional platforms, expressing an opinion is free; the cost is just keyboard strikes and emotional output. But prediction markets change everything:
You have to bet on your opinion
You have to bear the risks of cognition
The way you express your stance is no longer commenting, but building a position
This mechanism brings about a new incentive for expression; you can make money by judging the direction of information, and you can also lose money for making incorrect judgments.
Users are no longer bystanders but active participants in the market, even price setters in the betting market.
A cognitive arbitrage era is quietly arriving.
4｜Tradability Over Truthfulness
Truth and falsehood are no longer important; whether someone believes it or whether it can cause a chain reaction is what matters.
This may be the most dangerous point.
In prediction markets, what is valuable is 'whether the event can attract a large number of bets', not 'whether the event actually happened'.
As long as someone places a bet, information can open; as long as emotions can be manipulated, rumors can become sources of volatility.
This is a highly financialized alchemy of attention:
Truth recedes, gaming rises
Objective facts yield to cognitive trends
What influences reality is not the event itself, but the market's pricing reaction to it
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A next-generation prediction market combined with AI, and a winning project from the Virtuals Hackathon.
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