This chart shows the spot cryptocurrency trading volume (in billions of dollars, bar chart) and the number of active stablecoin addresses (in millions, line chart) from 2018 to March 31, 2025. Below is an analysis of the chart and answers to questions:
1. **Chart trend analysis**:
- **Spot cryptocurrency trading volume (bar chart)**: The trading volume was relatively low from 2018 to 2020, surged significantly in 2021 (reaching approximately $4,000B), then declined in 2022, but rose again from 2023 to 2025, exhibiting high volatility.
- **Active addresses of stablecoins (line chart)**: The number of active addresses for stablecoins has been slowly increasing since 2018, accelerating in 2021, and continuing to grow rapidly from 2023 to 2025, reaching approximately 35M.
2. **Relationship between stablecoin activity and cryptocurrency trading volume**:
- The chart shows that the growth trend of active stablecoin addresses is relatively stable and continuously upward, whereas the spot cryptocurrency trading volume exhibits significant volatility (for example, the peak in 2021 and the decline in 2022).
- This suggests that the correlation between the two is not strong: the peaks and troughs in trading volume do not directly correspond to the growth in the number of active stablecoin addresses. For example, when trading volume declined in 2022, the number of active stablecoin addresses was still steadily increasing.
3. **Are they decoupled?**:
- 'Decoupling' typically refers to a significant reduction in correlation between two assets or indicators. From the chart, the number of active stablecoin addresses and cryptocurrency trading volume indeed do not show a strong correlation, but this does not necessarily mean they are completely decoupled.
- The number of active addresses for stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) reflects users' demand for stablecoins (possibly for trading, payments, DeFi, etc.), while the spot cryptocurrency trading volume is more influenced by market speculation, price fluctuations, and overall market sentiment.
- Therefore, this low correlation may indicate that the use cases for stablecoins have expanded beyond merely serving cryptocurrency trading, but are increasingly used for other purposes (such as DeFi, cross-border payments, etc.), which can be seen as a sign of product-market fit.
4. **Explanation of product-market fit**:
- If the number of active addresses for stablecoins continues to grow, without being entirely dependent on fluctuations in cryptocurrency trading volume, this may indicate that stablecoins have found broader use cases and demand is more stable. This independence reflects product-market fit: stablecoins are no longer just a 'tool' for crypto trading, but have become a more fundamental part of the ecosystem.
**Summary**:
The low correlation between the number of active stablecoin addresses and cryptocurrency trading volume indicates that the two do not completely synchronize, but rather have different driving factors. Stablecoins may be 'decoupling' from the fluctuations in trading volume, reflecting their use in a broader context, which indeed is a sign of product-market fit. The growth of stablecoins shows their foundational role in the crypto ecosystem is increasingly significant, while the fluctuations in trading volume more reflect market speculation sentiment.
