Cardano (ADA) has dropped by more than 10% over the past week, with Tron (TRX) overtaking it in market cap rankings. Despite the weak performance, the key on-chain metric MVRV suggests ADA may have entered a so-called “opportunity zone,” which in the past has preceded major price rallies.
🔻 Price Drops, But Bullish Structure Still Intact
Since the beginning of the month, ADA has mirrored the broader crypto market’s bearish trend. Within days, the price plunged from $0.71 to $0.64, and Coinglass data shows over $12 million in long positions were liquidated.
Despite the decline, the bullish double-bottom pattern remains active on the monthly chart – a structure forming since 2021. If history repeats, this could mark the turning point for a rally toward the long-awaited $3.10 level.
After reaching its all-time high, Cardano sharply declined, only to rebound in early 2024. But that bounce stalled at a strong resistance of $0.80, which ADA has yet to flip into support. A close above this level will be crucial to fueling a breakout rally.
📊 Technical Signals: Uncertainty Reigns
From a technical analysis standpoint, indicators are mixed:
🔹 The RSI has stabilized around 51, suggesting indecision – neither buyers nor sellers are in full control.
🔹 The Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows waning bullish momentum, which could delay the breakout from the double-bottom formation.
However, hope for a reversal is buoyed by increasing institutional interest in ADA. Rumors are circulating about a potential partnership with Franklin Templeton, following a high-level meeting between its CEO and the CEO of Cardano Foundation. If realized, this could fuel renewed bullish sentiment.
🟢 MVRV Ratio Flashes Bullish Buy Signal
The 30-day MVRV ratio for Cardano has dropped to -13%, meaning most recent buyers are sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, such deep negative values have preceded trend reversals.
In Q4 2024, a similar MVRV dip led to a 270% rally within two months. In February 2025, another sharp drop was followed by a 67% surge.
If MVRV bottoms again, it could reinforce the double-bottom structure seen on the monthly chart and kickstart a bullish breakout.
📈 Bottom Line
Cardano’s price has suffered in recent weeks, and its poor performance led to a drop in its market cap ranking. However, the combination of a key buy signal from MVRV and a still-active double-bottom pattern could provide the foundation for a strong rally.
If bulls manage to push the price above $0.80, ADA could be on track for a new rise – possibly above $3. The coming weeks will reveal whether this opportunity zone becomes a launchpad for Cardano’s next rally.
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