🚨❗Impeachment chance at 12%. How the Trump and Musk feud is evaluated on Polymarket.
The feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, which began on June 5 and spilled over into social media (Truth Social, X), has stirred up traders on Polymarket, where a category "Trump vs Elon" has emerged with top bets. The most popular pool is "Trump's impeachment in 2025" (12%), while the likelihood of the publication of documents related to the Epstein case by the end of the year is estimated at 15% following Musk's hints.
The chances of Musk going to jail are 5%, that he will lose his status as the richest person by July is 11%, that he will return to the Trump administration is 8%, and that DOGE will be shut down is 32%. Reconciliation by next Friday has a 27% probability, and Trump's apologies are only at 2%. Despite the threat to decommission Dragon, NASA is likely to fly it to the ISS in 2025 (88%).
