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Here’s the latest on whether the Fed will cut interest rates:

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🔍 What the data shows

• Labor market trend: In May, U.S. employers added just 139,000 jobs—slightly below expectations—while unemployment held steady at 4.2%  .

• Rate expectations: Traders now see only a small chance of a rate cut at the June or July meetings (~15%), and expect the first cut in September, with possibly two cuts by year-end, depending on inflation and jobs data    .

• Fed’s stance: Officials are taking a “patient” approach—waiting for clearer signs of cooling inflation or labor weakness before making moves   .

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💬 Fed officials’ tone

• Pat Harker emphasized caution and said rates will likely remain at 4.25–4.50% during the upcoming June meeting .

• Chris Waller remains open to cuts in late 2025 if core inflation approaches the Fed’s 2% target and job growth remains solid .

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🧭 Summary

• No cut in June — economists and markets largely agree.

• First cut likely in September, with potentially one more by December, contingent on economic data.

• Watch inflation and job trends—Fed aims to meet its 2% inflation goal while keeping employment stable.

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📌 Bottom line for you:

If you’re planning significant borrowing (e.g., a home loan), expect rates to remain steady until at least September. Keep an eye on inflation and labor reports—these will influence the Fed’s next steps.

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