Non-farm data is coming tonight, will $BTC bloodbath down to 95,000?
Tonight's non-farm data is like the sword of Damocles hanging over the cryptocurrency market! This set of economic indicators directly determines whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, and once the expectation of rate hikes rises, Bitcoin will be pressed down in no time.
First, let's discuss how three core data points can kill Bitcoin:
Employment Numbers: If new jobs exceed expectations, it indicates an overheated economy, and the Federal Reserve will definitely raise interest rates, leading Bitcoin to kneel; if employment is poor, the market may bet on rate cuts, allowing Bitcoin to breathe a little.
Unemployment Rate: If the unemployment rate falls = economy good = high probability of rate hikes = Bitcoin cools down; if the unemployment rate rises = economy bad = expectations of rate cuts increase = Bitcoin may rise.
Wage Growth: If wages rise too quickly = inflation will explode = Federal Reserve will crazily raise interest rates = Bitcoin will be drained; if wages rise slowly = inflation is controllable = rate hikes slow down = Bitcoin can take a breather.
Key Logical Chain: Strong non-farm data → market bets on Federal Reserve rate hike → dollar surges → Bitcoin is sold off; weak non-farm data → market bets on rate cuts → dollar weakens → Bitcoin may become the new darling of risk-averse funds.
But note: Non-farm data will only trigger short-term volatility; the long-term trend still depends on the macroeconomic cycle, regulatory policies, and whether the crypto market has new stories to tell.
The technicals have already raised alarms:
Bitcoin: Last week closed with a "bearish engulfing" pattern; after hovering around 103,000-106,000 for a week, it directly broke through the 100,000 mark last night. How long has the daily MACD death cross been? At this rate, 95,000 is just the first target!
Ethereum: Three upper shadows on the weekly chart, a "morning star" on the monthly chart (don't be fooled by the name, it's a bearish signal), death cross on the four-hour daily chart, after breaking 2300, 2100 won't hold at all!
Before and after the release of the non-farm data, market fluctuations can drive people crazy. Even if the data meets expectations, there may be a reverse operation of "good news fully priced in." But with the technicals laid out, the bears are now wielding a 40-meter sword, and the bulls better not take it head-on.
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