Bitcoin is currently in a correction phase after recent highs. Intraday candles are testing the lower boundary, and RSI oscillators are starting to turn from the overbought zone. We see tightened Bollingers and decreased volume in recent movements — a classic signal of potential rebound or calm.
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🔍 What's happening?
Short-term indicator (RSI and Stoch RSI) signals exiting the overbought zone – a possible impulse upwards of 2–3%.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing – this often precedes a strong movement (breakout).
Trading volumes have decreased — the market is currently uncertain about where to go next.
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📈 How much X by the end of 2025?
Optimistic scenario (institutional pressure + macro factors): BTC will rise within 1.3–1.8X.
Base scenario (stable growth): +20–50% from the current level.
Risk outlook (recession + strict regulations): unchanged or a decline of 10–20%.
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🧩 What's new and what are the risks?
Trump Media invests billions in BTC – this is a fact.
The macroeconomics is slowly moving away from the energy of inflation spikes – this is good.
The risk of US/EU regulations remains — powerful players are not sleeping.
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🎯 Is it worth entering today?
For scalpers: suitable opportunity — buy on the flat or on a rebound from the lower Bollinger band (around $100,800). Potential short movement +2–3%.
For those planning to hold for a few weeks: maintain tails at 15–30% — one can enter with a medium-term strategy, but only in phases and with stops.
If you want to hold institutionally: keep the asset, assessing growth at 1.5× for a couple of months. But do not overload with the entire position — macro has not yet completed the cycle.
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⚠️ What to act cautiously with?
If the breakout doesn't go above $105–106K — expect a correction back to ~$100K.
If volatility increases, the market may sharply change structure — do not ignore stop levels.
Regulatory negativity can chill BTC's mood even without a technical catalyst.
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🔑 Summary
Bitcoin still has resources to grow by the end of the year — noticeable growth is possible but not guaranteed. Today on the table — short-term signals upwards, but the best strategy is phased entries and exits with clear risk management.
Scenarios:
Controlled growth scenario: +20–50% by the end of the year.
Institutional energy scenario: +30–80%.
Regulatory correction scenario: -10–20%.
We remain flexible, act with a plan — and may Bitcoin continue its reign in the portfolio.
