Breaking! After briefly breaking above 99, the dollar index fell back, triggering a super shock in the cryptocurrency market - Bitcoin plummeted to $101,000 on June 6, with over 227,000 liquidations in 24 hours, amounting to $983 million! This drop directly triggered the largest scale liquidation in 2025, with Ethereum plunging 7.98% in a single day, and DeFi tokens collapsing collectively.
Leverage Chain Reaction: After Bitcoin fell below the key support of $103,000, forced liquidations on platforms like Binance and Bybit surged, with liquidation orders exceeding $1 million accounting for 37%. High-leverage players' long positions in the $104,000-$105,000 range were almost entirely wiped out.
Institutional Reverse Operation: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 2,704 BTC (approximately $286 million) in a single day, with holdings exceeding 660,000 BTC, valued at over $70 billion. During the same period, gold ETFs experienced an outflow of $2.8 billion, with funds shifting from traditional safe-haven assets to cryptocurrencies.
On-Chain Data Anomaly: Despite the price crash, the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges reached 12,000 BTC, with 74% of circulating coins locked for over two years, and 75% have not moved in the past six months. Long-term holders (LTH) increased their holdings during the crash, with the holding market value exceeding $28 billion, reaching a new high since April.
Hong Kong Major Move: The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has announced that it will open virtual asset derivatives trading, including Bitcoin futures and options, for professional investors. This policy is expected to attract over $5 billion in incremental funds, with a rollout as early as the third quarter.
Fed Suspense Upgrade: As the June 17 meeting approaches, the market bets on a mere 5.6% chance of a rate cut in June, but the probability rises to 24% in July. If Trump's tariff policies ease, the Fed may cut rates by 100 basis points within the next 15 months, which will act as a super catalyst in the crypto space.
Sovereign Capital Entry: Bhutan's sovereign wealth fund and South Korea's National Pension Service have initiated cryptocurrency asset allocation, aiming to include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserve portfolios. Texas in the United States plans to legislate the establishment of a state-level Bitcoin reserve, with the first purchase expected to be 50,000 BTC.
Golden Pit Appears: Bitcoin's on-chain valuation model (S2F) shows that the current price is 32% lower than the model valuation, with a theoretical bottom at $92,000 - $97,000. Standard Chartered, VanEck, and other institutions maintain a target price of $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Key Resistance Level: In the short term, it needs to recover $105,000; otherwise, it may dip to $97,000. If it stabilizes above $110,000, it will open up upward space to $115,000 - $120,000.
Derivatives Signal: Bitcoin futures funding rate has dropped from 0.06% to -0.03%, indicating a shift in market sentiment from greed to fear. The number of open contracts for put options with a strike price of $100,000 has surged by 210%, and the panic index (VIX) has risen to 78.
Retail Survival Strategy:
Immediate Liquidation: Positions with leverage exceeding 3 times must be reduced to avoid secondary liquidations.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Tool: Increase the investment amount by 50% for every 5% drop in Bitcoin, building positions in batches in the $95,000 - $100,000 range.
Hedging Portfolio: Allocate 30% USDT + 20% Gold ETF (such as GLD) to hedge against the risk of a dollar rebound.
Institutional Under-the-Radar Layout:
ETF Arbitrage: Grayscale's GBTC premium rate has rebounded from -12% to -8%, and when the premium turns positive, it will trigger entry of arbitrage funds.
DeFi Ambush: Ethereum L2 track (such as Arbitrum, Optimism) locked-up volume exceeds $12 billion, laying low for leading tokens.
Sovereign Opportunities: Focus on policies of Bitcoin-friendly countries like El Salvador and Paraguay, which may replicate the 'Bitcoin Legalization' trend.
Policy Black Swan: Cryptocurrency trading remains strictly prohibited in China, with skyrocketing risks of frozen OTC accounts. It is recommended to participate through compliant platforms in Hong Kong (such as HashKey) to avoid breaking the funding chain.
Liquidity Trap: The holding ratio of the top 100 Bitcoin addresses has risen to 68%, and the exhaustion of market liquidity may trigger a 'flash crash - recovery' cycle.
Macro Nuclear Bomb: If the Fed releases hawkish signals at the June 17 meeting, Bitcoin could plunge 15% in a single day, triggering $10 billion in liquidations.
This is not the end, but the beginning of an epic opportunity! When retail investors panic and sell, institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are frantically buying. Historical data shows that Bitcoin averages a 280% increase within 12 months after each 30% crash. Hold on to your chips, because the dawn of the next bull market often appears in the darkest of nights.
The market continues to change, and we are closely monitoring it to seize new entry opportunities. Like and comment, let's traverse the bull market together and seize this major opportunity.#特朗普马斯克分歧 #我的COS交易 #Metaplanet拟筹资增持比特币
