The Truth About ETH's Sideways Movement: The Tug of War Between Ecological Expansion and Speculative Retreat
Today, the market $ETH appears calm on the surface, but there are hidden complexities. On the surface, prices are oscillating within a range, but the underlying ecosystem has quietly changed.
Divergence Between On-Chain Activity and Coin Price
Although the total locked value in DeFi continues to rise, ETH transaction fees have declined for three consecutive weeks, revealing a mismatch between real usage demand and speculative funds—retail trading enthusiasm has cooled, while institutional staking and inter-protocol interactions are still expanding in the background.
Reversal of Sentiment in the Derivatives Market
The options open interest shows that the open interest of put options has reached a three-month low, but the volatility surface presents a 'left-skewed' structure, suggesting that professional traders are preparing for extreme market conditions. This combination of 'increased demand for put protection + narrowed spot volatility' often serves as a precursor to a market reversal.
The Double-Edged Sword of Staking Economy
As the ETH staking rate surpasses 21%, the narrative of a liquidity crisis continues to ferment. However, caution is needed: when staking yields become the primary pricing anchor, any alleviation of network congestion may trigger a reset in staking yield expectations, which could impact coin prices.
The current essence of the ETH market is a tug of war between 'ecological fundamentals' and 'speculative expectations'. The short-term fluctuations are actually a key window for both bulls and bears to reassess ecological value, with the true directional choice likely determined by whether L2 transaction fee income can surpass the critical point of staking yields.
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