As tensions rise in the Middle East, Axios cited several informed officials disclosing a significant piece of news: Israel has promised the US not to unilaterally attack Iran before a breakdown in the US-Iran negotiations led by the Trump administration. Israel will only take action if Trump personally gives the green light.
US-Israel closed-door talks: no military action, leaving room for negotiations.
According to informed sources, last week, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Erdan, Mossad Director Barnea, and National Security Advisor Hanegbi quietly visited Washington to convey this commitment to senior officials at the White House. Israeli officials clearly stated, 'There will be no preemptive military action before diplomatic possibilities are exhausted.'
The Trump administration's worries about Israel's potential unilateral actions have been escalating recently. Especially since Netanyahu's government is known for its hardline stance, there are concerns that Israel may provoke military conflict while US-Iran negotiations are still underway. However, the Israeli side has clearly signaled that it respects the US-led diplomatic efforts.
Mlion.ai's Middle East situation risk model has monitored a noticeable increase in the frequency of high-level communications between the US and Israel since last month, indicating that both sides are intensively coordinating on conflict risk management.
Trump sets a final deadline; patience is limited.
Although Israel has promised not to take action for now, Trump's attitude appears more threatening. In an interview, he stated, 'If negotiations make no progress, I can change the situation with one phone call.' According to interpretations within the White House, Trump has set a clear two-month deadline for the Iran nuclear negotiations, which are now in the final countdown phase.
The negotiation process between White House envoy Vitkov and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif is slow, and the planned new round of meetings has been postponed, adding more uncertainty to the situation. Mlion.ai's global diplomatic event prediction module shows a slight upward trend in the risk of US-Iran negotiations breaking down in the next 30 days.
Israel's military preparations have not stopped, and misinterpretations are frequent.
An Israeli senior official revealed that although the Defense Forces are continuing to conduct strike plan drills against Iran, the US and other countries have mistakenly interpreted prior Israeli strikes against the Houthi forces in Yemen as a signal of military action against Iran.
In fact, Netanyahu's government is still observing the situation. He is skeptical about the prospects of restarting nuclear agreement negotiations with Iran, believing that Iran may be strategically stalling to avoid a real breakdown in negotiations.
An Israeli official bluntly stated, 'The Iranians know best that a breakdown in negotiations would cost them dearly, so they will do everything they can to stall the situation.' It is reported that Netanyahu expects several more months of tug-of-war before Trump determines that the negotiations have completely failed.
Mlion.ai's regional situation analysis believes that while military risks are temporarily suppressed in the current diplomatic deadlock, the probability of conflict escalation cannot be ignored in the medium to long term.
The delicate game in the Middle East chessboard, the global market holds its breath.
Behind the global attention, the capital market is also highly sensitive. Mlion.ai's commodity risk model has detected a rise in risk aversion in the oil market, and there are also slight upward signals in gold prices. Market funds are quietly positioning themselves to guard against sudden geopolitical events triggering a new wave of risk aversion.
For investors, closely monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations and timely insights into policy shifts and military risk changes will be essential in the coming months. With Mlion.ai's real-time tracking of international situations and risk warning functions, precise grasp of potential black swan risks can provide intelligent support for asset preservation and value appreciation.
Summary
Israel promises not to take action for now, while Trump sets a deadline. The US-Iran negotiations are swaying in a delicate balance. Although the sparks of conflict are temporarily suppressed, any breakdown in diplomacy could ignite a larger wave of turmoil.
In a globally turbulent context, seeking stability to win, and winning with foresight. Choosing a tool that provides real-time data insights and intelligent decision support, such as Mlion.ai, could be the best answer to navigate through market fog.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!