$BTC
To predict the trend of BTC, we should take SOL as a reference. Because SOL always retraces one step ahead of BTC. This time, after reaching the high point of 187, it also started to retrace first, coming down to 152.5, which is the 0.382 position. It paused here for a few days, unable to break below 150, creating a false bottom opportunity for the inexperienced traders. Actually, it is waiting for BTC to break below 103000. Last night, it dropped to 141.5, which just retraced to the 0.50 position.
It can still retrace down about 11 points, around 130.5, which is the 0.618 position and the bottom-buying point.
From a purely positional perspective, SOL can bottom out around 130, and BTC will not drop below 95000. 95000 is the 0.618 retracement position. Spot orders can be placed at will; it’s okay if they don’t get filled. I believe very few people will buy BTC spot above 98,000. BTC is slightly stronger in the market. If SOL retraces to 0.618, BTC will basically retrace to 0.50 at around 98200.
The 0.382 position is 101400, which was broken last night, but historically it will rebound strongly from here. If it does not resist at 100,000, it will soon lose ground. So, one should not chase short positions; at least wait for a rebound above 102400 before going short. Therefore, the next retracement at the 0.50 position around 98200 can temporarily serve as a bottom-buying point for contracts.
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