How much should Bitcoin be worth? This question seems to be something we could ask Marx, who stated in his famous work (Capital) that: 'Value is an essential attribute of a commodity. Every commodity must have value, and the human labor condensed in the commodity is essentially indistinguishable, differing only in quantity, measured by socially necessary labor time. Through human labor, a commodity acquires value and becomes a commodity. If it does not contain human labor, even if it has use value, such as sunlight or air, it is not a commodity (I don't know if this is the original text, but the meaning is correct).'
This is the origin of the classic saying, 'The value of a commodity is composed of the human indistinguishable labor condensed within it.'
Although Marx and his political economy are quite controversial, I find this statement very reliable. If we consider Bitcoin as a product, what is the condensation of human indistinguishable labor within it? That should be asked of those mining farm owners.
In summary, the overall cost of mining machines depreciated over the value of one Bitcoin, the rent for the time it takes to mine one Bitcoin, electricity costs, salaries for maintenance personnel, expected returns, and opportunity costs—all these expenses combined constitute the value of one Bitcoin. This value seems difficult to calculate, but it actually has practical reference significance. For example, if a mining farm owner purchases a full set of equipment, rents a house, hires some employees to mine daily, and when they want to sell the mined Bitcoin, they find that the Bitcoin mined is not enough to pay for the machines, utilities, rent, and salaries, they might quickly shut down the machines and stop. At this point, the supply of Bitcoin decreases, and the price will rise until the owner thinks there is money to be made. Conversely, if the owner sells the Bitcoin and finds that after paying for the machines, utilities, rent, and salaries, they still make a substantial profit, what should they do? Buy ten more machines, hire ten more people, roll up their sleeves and work harder. At this point, the supply of Bitcoin will increase, exceeding demand, and the price will fall until miners can't make that much money. Therefore, the miners' costs and the price of Bitcoin should be highly positively correlated, and the price of Bitcoin should continuously revert to the cost of mining one Bitcoin.
Because of this, many criticize Bitcoin, the most significant reason being that Bitcoin mining consumes a large amount of electrical resources, causing a serious social burden.
Later, someone online rebutted that according to statistics, the electricity consumption accounted for by Bitcoin mining is about 5% of total electricity consumption, which is not enough to cause a serious impact.
I don't know if this rebuttal is correct. What I want to say is that since it is a 'commodity,' there must be 'the condensation of human indistinguishable labor.' Whether it's the electricity costs, mining machines, or warehouses, it is precisely because of these inputs that the resulting Bitcoin has genuine value, as the cost of obtaining it has already been incorporated. The power of Bitcoin lies in the fact that these costs cannot be avoided through speculative means, which further stabilizes its value.
If it's not very clear, let me give two examples:
1. We all believe that gold has high value, because the reserves of gold on Earth are limited and, importantly, the cost of obtaining it is very high; you really need to 'mine' it. The cost of obtaining gold directly determines its intrinsic value. Currently, it seems that the 'alchemy' pursued by ancient people has not yet become a reality (not for now), so trying to obtain gold through speculative means remains impossible. Therefore, 'scarcity' and 'difficulty of acquisition' jointly determine the value of gold.
2. Let's take another look at the currency of Beautiful Country. Suppose there is a situation where Beautiful Country owes Neon Country 10 billion in foreign debt and cannot repay it, what should it do? It's simple: turn on the printing press and print for three days, brand new and fragrant 'greenbacks' are airlifted directly to Neon Country, saying, 'Look, our debt is cleared.' Neon Country takes these bills to buy equipment from the Heavenly Dynasty, and the Heavenly Dynasty says: 'Beautiful Country just gave me 30 billion in cash a few days ago! I'm worried I have nowhere to spend it! No, no, no.' Is Neon Country in chaos? Thinking: 'Baga, I've received a pile of waste paper.'
So, what is more valuable, the currency of Beautiful Country or gold? I believe you have made your own judgment. In some countries, the currency will depreciate significantly because it has no 'scarcity' or 'difficulty of acquisition'; printing money incurs no cost (almost no expense), and they can print as much as they want.
So, to put it bluntly, the reason I buy Bitcoin is precisely because mining consumes a large amount of electricity. If it could be mined casually and sold for 200,000 RMB, would you dare to buy it? Do you believe it?
That being said, if quantum computing technology can fundamentally change the current mining computation method, then after using the new quantum computing technology, what originally took 100 miners, consumed 1000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, and took one day to mine Bitcoin, could now be done with one miner, one kilowatt-hour of electricity, in two minutes. In that case, the price of Bitcoin would indeed decrease significantly.
When will that day come? We do not know. However, it seems quite distant for now.
But if we start worrying about this now, it seems we should also be concerned about gold. The reason why the price of gold is stable now is determined by its scarcity and the difficulty of obtaining it. Like Bitcoin, the costs of mining, refining, transporting, and other factors directly affect the price of gold. So in the future, if we achieve the alchemy that ancient alchemists dreamed of: synthesizing gold (forming new molecules through particle collisions is no longer a pipe dream), it seems that the price of the world's oldest currency will also be precarious.
Before that day comes, I still believe that gold and Bitcoin are currently the best investment methods.