🐑 When’s altseason?

Most «altseason calls» are coffee-ground guesses or lazy copies of past cycles, even though the 2025 market is a whole new beast. I’ve written plenty about why the classic altseason hasn’t shown up yet, but it’s still coming — we just need stronger bullish triggers to kick it into work.

Can we at least gauge when it might start? Yes. Two key metrics can show how close we are so we don’t sleep through the launch.

⏺️ Altseason Index

The crowd favorite: once the index pushes above 75%, it signals money rotating from BTC into alts. It showed some tops (December 2024) but also spat out false alerts — December 2019 and August 2022 both flashed «altseason» while the market drifted sideways. Handy, but blind trust is risky: it tracks relative returns over a few months and ignores real liquidity.

⏺️ Rising Alt-Volume (30-day MA vs yearly MA)

My favorite metric (see screenshot 3, yellow). When the average daily volume over the last 30 days beats the yearly average, fresh capital is clearly flowing into alts. In 2017 and 2021 this metric shot to 70–150 k at local peaks and 300–400 k at global peaks.

This cycle? We’ve only kissed ~30 k (March 2024) and ~22 k (December 2024). Way below the «battle» levels of past bull runs — so a full-blown altseason still hasn’t arrived.

🤵 Bottom line: The big moves in alts are likely still ahead. Watch volume, and remember: a couple of daily pumps isn’t altseason — it’s just market noise.