🌀 Bitcoin Mega Cycle Breakdown

1. 📈 Accumulation Phase (Post-Crash Bottom)

Timing: 12–18 months after the previous all-time high (ATH)

Characteristics:

Price is relatively stable and low

Sentiment is bearish or apathetic (e.g., “Bitcoin is dead” narrative)

Smart money (long-term investors, whales) accumulates BTC

Low media attention, low retail interest

Key Events:

Miner capitulation ends

On-chain metrics (e.g., realized price, NUPL) show undervaluation

2. 🚀 Bull Market (Pre-Halving to Post-Halving)

Timing: Starts ~6–12 months before halving; peaks 12–18 months after

Characteristics:

Gradual price increase turns into exponential gains

Halving reduces new supply, creating a supply shock

Retail FOMO kicks in after a major breakout

Altcoin season often follows BTC rally

Key Events:

Halving (~every 4 years; next expected: April 2028)

Institutional entry (ETFs, corporate treasury buys, etc.)

Media hype and public interest surges

3. 💎 Euphoria & Blow-Off Top

Timing: ~12–18 months post-halving

Characteristics:

Parabolic price increase

High retail participation

Excessive leverage and altcoin mania

“This time is different” sentiment

Key Events:

Price goes vertical

On-chain signals show overbought conditions

Institutions start taking profits

BTC dominance drops sharp

4. 📉 Distribution Phase (Top Formation)

Timing: Weeks to a few months after ATH

Characteristics:

Volatility increases

Smart money begins exiting

Retail is still buying the top

Narrative peak (e.g., “hyperbitcoinization,” ETF-driven moonshots)

Key Events:

Bearish divergences appear

Media remains optimistic

Top is usually only clear in hindsight

5. 🕳️ Bear Market (Crash & Capitulation)

Timing: ~1–2 years after ATH

Characteristics:

Sharp correction (typically 70–85%+ drawdown from ATH)

Retail exits in panic

Builders and long-term believers stay

Market cleanses leverage and froth.