• Play: Prefer short according to the trend, avoid catching the bottom early
• Suggested entry:
• Short if it drops below 0.775 with volume confirmation
• Long should only be considered if the price strongly breaks above 0.825 + MACD confirmation
• Stop-loss:
• Short: above 0.80
• Long: below 0.805
• Take-profit:
• Short: 0.72 – 0.70
• Long: 0.87 – 0.90
• Timeframe: 4H
• R:R: around 1.8 – 2.2 depending on position
• Situation: Near bottom break – easy to fail breakout trap, need to wait for candle confirmation
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🧠 Strategy Explanation:
1. Ichimoku Cloud:
• Price is below the thick red cloud → clearly in a downtrend
• Future cloud continues to slope down, indicating selling pressure still exists
2. MACD:
• MACD is below zero and the signal line has just crossed down again → signal for continued decline
• Histogram starts to turn red again → selling pressure gradually dominates
3. Delta and Volume Profile:
• Drops are accompanied by strong negative Delta (–20M, –12M, –3M), with no significant buying force supporting the price
• The high volume area is above the current area, indicating that the current area may be a 'bottom dumping' zone rather than a bottom accumulation zone
4. Price Structure:
• Price is testing the support bottom area 0.78 – 0.775, and narrow sideways → breakout is extremely likely
• If this area breaks, there is almost no support below until the 0.70 area
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📌 Note: Do not catch the bottom unless there is a clear reversal candle signal + MACD confirmation. Prefer to trade based on reaction when this bottom area is broken or held.
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