Tonight's major events in the crypto world:
Circle's listing: The stablecoin giant rings the bell tonight, with a valuation of 7 billion, possibly replaying the volatility post-Coinbase listing, with the market focusing on the impact of capital diversion.
Solana project siphoning: PumpFun pre-sells 1 billion tokens, combined with Circle's listing, could double drain liquidity from the crypto market.
Now let's talk about BTC: recently, it has created lower highs and lower lows, and is now entering a descending channel. The price levels of 1035 and 1015 are very suitable for going long, with small stop losses, offering good profit opportunities. Even if you hit a stop loss, don't hold on stubbornly; wait for a suitable lower position to continue trading.
The key to playing contracts is the price level; don’t bet on a breakout at resistance or a breakdown at support, just follow the normal strategy.
Looking at BTC again, the heatmap shows that both long and short funds are watching around 1035, and it currently looks more like a sideways market. If the long positions are liquidated here at 1035 and it hasn't dropped to 1015, the shorts should be cautious. The trading volume has decreased, the market is consolidating, and there may be news on Friday that could cause a stir; the market might swing around 108.
If 1015 breaks down, the weekly level may retrace to around 95; those trading contracts shouldn't stubbornly hold. But this is a good time to buy some spot; I plan to stock up on ETH, BNB, and others at these positions suitable for going long, and SUI will be observed for now; those who understand, know.
ETH has been consolidating in a range recently, whether on the four-hour or smaller timeframes, it's very standard. This kind of market is suitable for short-term trading, and for me, it's quite comfortable to steadily earn a little money.
ETH appears stable at this high level, but don’t bet on a breakout while playing contracts. If it breaks below 2570, you might try shorting, but if it drops to 2548, that’s the support level, and there’s not much to gain. From a large perspective, as long as the bottom of the 2375 consolidation hasn't been broken, it’s still a consolidating market; just follow the old methods.
If BTC experiences a liquidation market and drops to the weekly level, I plan to buy ETH spot, after all, it’s a mainstream coin, and I might take a chance on the exchange rate changes with BTC.
Altcoins are still unstable; I wouldn't recommend trading them. The market has no direction, but a small position can be tried.
Pump.fun plans to issue tokens at a valuation of $5 billion, sparking debate about VC and retail investors receiving the same price.
Why issue tokens now? It’s actually quite understandable. Last year, when Solana memes were extremely popular, Pump.fun had hundreds of thousands of daily active users, earning millions of dollars daily just from transaction fees; users were going crazy issuing tokens and trading memes. If they had issued tokens back then, they could have priced them however they wanted. But they didn’t, and now the hype has faded, user activity has halved, and 99% of the tokens on the platform have 'graduated' (essentially gone to zero), with trading volume and income plummeting. If they don’t issue tokens now, there will be no chance left when no one is playing.
Some people question why a tool-based project is valued at 5 billion? Isn’t it more expensive than many DeFi blue chips? There is indeed some truth to that, but it can't be completely dismissed. From a profitability perspective, Pump.fun has a very high efficiency, and when Solana memes were hot, its daily transaction fees were higher than some L2 networks. But the problem is that its revenue relies entirely on market sentiment, and once the meme is no longer played, the revenue may be halved.
So this token issuance is, on one hand, a way to raise funds for survival, and on the other hand, it may want to pivot—from a platform that purely sells shovels to one with a token economy in the Web3 ecosystem, or even create a meme ecosystem. Whether it can succeed depends on whether they genuinely build infrastructure and attract developers with real money after the token issuance or just cut and run; it depends on the team's vision.
That being said, even if it’s a harvest, Pump.fun at least chose a timing when there are still buyers. Look at Opensea; they didn’t issue tokens during the bull market and only remembered to do it in the bear market; now almost no one is paying attention, so what's the point of issuing tokens?
To summarize, Pump.fun's token issuance this time feels a bit like a 'self-rescue harvest', but the timing isn’t too bad. As for whether this is a scam, everyone can ponder that themselves.
Liquidation and big player tactics: LA contract surges and plummets.
Today, everyone is discussing the liquidation of $LA, but to be honest, the volatility of new coins upon launch is easily exploited by funds to create a market trend. At that time, there were a lot of brainless shorting voices in the market, which actually gave the big players an opportunity. It’s not surprising to see a few thousand dollars leverage the market and get directly killed at the opening.
Gate, as a platform, actually provides a normal contract trading environment, without interfering with trading directions, and the data is all traceable on-chain. The real issue is that people are too easily swayed by emotions, treating consensus as strategy, and end up being counterparty to the big players. The contract market has never been just about guessing ups and downs, especially when new coins are launched; liquidity, depth, and sentiment all need to be considered. Liquidation doesn’t mean someone else has played dirty; it's just how the game rules work.
After going online, CA doubled in price, this wave has really been profitable!
Did Xianxian not deceive everyone earlier! As the 'Dragon Two' of the USD1 narrative, CA’s trend is similar to the leading B; if you bought WLFI earlier, you can still ride the wave! I started paying attention when Pepe's market cap was 8 million, and yesterday CA went online and doubled; did you catch this clear opportunity?
I just mentioned that Sol has poor liquidity these days, and then a top-level narrative came out in the early morning?
This top-level narrative is still about Old Ma and Old Chuan.
Among them are two tokens:
$KILLBILL
$KBBB
Take a look at the K-line chart of $KBBB. Does it seem like new investors think it keeps rising without a pullback and want to buy quickly? Don't be impulsive! Use Gmgn to check, and you'll see that the top addresses are all related transactions, so there's hardly any normal retail investors involved, nor have we seen large funds entering. Looking at the trading volume, it can’t support the market cap; it feels like the big players are manipulating the price.
Though big fund movements aren't the only reference, it’s important to see if the sentiment is genuinely hot before following the trend. If you really want to play, buy a little to test, manage your position well, and don't go all in impulsively.
If $Pnut is a landmark event of cooperation between Chuanbao and Old Ma, then $Killbill signifies their complete fallout. In our Chinese community, not many people are discussing this yet, so let me briefly explain what today’s $Killbill meme means.
This matter stems from two tweets Old Ma posted at 2 AM, where he pinned his opposition to the BBB bill. This is essentially a public opposition to Chuanbao. The accompanying text and image are the classic cover and title of the movie (Kill Bill).
The real meaning behind it is that Old Ma opposes a bill passed on May 22; you can look it up for details; this marks the formal break with Chuanbao.
Now the crypto world has a new story, from the previous $Pnut to the current $Killbill; each story might have someone making money, it just depends on whether you can seize the opportunity.