The financial world is entering its most dangerous phase since the 2008 crisis. But this time it is not due to bank failures, but because of something seemingly inviolable: the U.S. government – which is in debt over $35 trillion and shows no signs of stopping.
Each time public debt is mentioned, the media refers to it as 'normal', 'technical procedure', or 'manageable issue'. But the truth is the debt clock is counting down to a breaking point, where trust in the USD, in treasury bonds, in the global financial system... may no longer be as strong as before. And in that uncertain fog, crypto – especially Bitcoin – is waiting for the right moment.
⸻
The U.S. cannot stop borrowing, and also cannot repay.
The U.S. financial system now resembles a heavy drug addict: unable to live without debt. From public spending, social welfare, defense budgets, to 'injecting blood' into the markets every time a crisis hits, everything depends on the government's unlimited borrowing capacity.
But what happens when investors begin to doubt the ability to repay debts? When China and Japan gradually sell off U.S. bonds? When the Fed has to choose between keeping interest rates high to combat inflation, or lowering rates to ease the burden of debt interest? The answer is there are no safe options.
Or they will continue to print money to pay off debts → leading to widespread inflation.
Or they tighten fiscal policies → growth slows down, unemployment rises, social instability erupts.
Whichever direction it goes, trust in the USD is gradually eroding. And when trust dies, nothing can save a system based on... trust.
⸻
Bitcoin: The one sitting still waiting for the collapse of the old world
Bitcoin's emergence after the 2008 crisis was not a coincidence. It is a reaction. A slap in the face of the traditional financial system. A symbol of decentralization, limited supply, and resistance to manipulation.
If U.S. public debt continues to rise, if the Fed continues to print money, if the world realizes that the USD is just paper with unlimited ink – then Bitcoin will become the ultimate safe haven. Not because it is perfect. But because there are no better options left.
Bitcoin cannot be printed more. No one controls it. And it cannot go bankrupt like a bank or a country. In a world where fiat currencies lose value over time, Bitcoin is the countdown timer for reality.
⸻
Stablecoins and the ticking time bomb called 'U.S. bonds'
There is a paradox in the crypto market: the majority of stablecoins like USDT or USDC – which are considered 'safe havens' in this ecosystem – are backed by... U.S. government bonds.
Tether currently holds nearly $90 billion in short-term U.S. bonds. Circle is not much different. This means that: if the U.S. defaults, or U.S. bonds lose significant value, the stablecoin system will face a major shock, causing the entire crypto market to tremble.
In other words, crypto is still partially dependent on the system it wants to replace. This is a strategic weakness, as well as an opportunity for decentralized stablecoins like DAI, LUSD, or FRAX to rise when the time comes.
⸻
The 2020s: The era of financial transition
From now until 2030, the world may witness a historic shift: from a centralized financial system focused on USD and government debt, to a more open, decentralized model, and less trust in state power.
It is not a delusional crypto dream, but a natural consequence when trust in currency issuers is eroded year by year.
If the U.S. government continues to spend without limits, if the Fed loses control of inflation, if debt ceiling negotiations continue to play out as a farce each year... then the market will seek a new 'balance sheet'. And that balance sheet will not be in Wall Street. It will be on the blockchain.
⸻
Conclusion
U.S. public debt is a ticking time bomb. It does not explode in a day, but gradually leaks trust through each policy, each money printing, each debt ceiling maneuver.
Crypto – led by Bitcoin – does not need to win immediately, does not need global adoption, does not need any country to recognize it. It just needs to sit still, remain unchanged, and wait for its opponents to self-destruct.
The old world does not collapse overnight, but will die from its own arrogance.
And that is when crypto rewrites the global monetary order.