2008. 2020. 2025.
Same script, new chapter.
Buckle up.
1 / Market rebounded… but now what?
The S&P 500 just staged a 15% comeback off the April lows.
Retail is back. Volatility is down. Risk-on is back on.
But now comes the hard question:
Was that the bottom?
Or just the eye of the storm?
2 / Three Roads From Here
Markets never go up or down in a straight line.
We’re at a crossroads.
These are the 3 possible paths from here:
- A euphoric V-shaped breakout
- A false bounce followed by deeper pain
- A long, frustrating sideways churn
Let’s unpack all 3 ⤵️
3 / Breakout Path: The V-Shaped Dream
We’ve seen this before: 2020, 2009, even 1998.
Markets crashed. The Fed printed. Everything soared.
V-shaped recoveries happen fast, and they’re brutal to miss.
So what would we need for one now?
4 / Tailwinds Supporting a Rebound
- Corporate earnings have stayed strong
- The dollar is weakening—great for multinationals
- Oil & gas prices are lower = consumer relief
- Rate cuts are finally hitting the system
Narrative bulls are eating this up.
But there’s one big problem...
5 / Tariff Bombshell
- U.S. just slapped a 3.6% average tariff on China.
- That affects $2 trillion in trade.
Add in Mexico, Canada, and global tariffs, and GDP could take a 1.5% hit.
That’s half of what we saw during the Great Financial Crisis.
6 / Recession Domino Effect
We’ve already seen the first domino fall: Q1 2025 GDP - negative.
If that continues, it’s not just a slowdown — it’s recession time.
Sound familiar?
- 2008 started the same way
- So did 2001
Both ended in brutal 50%+ market declines.
7 / But not all GDP dips end in doom
- 2011
- 2014
- 2022
All posted negative quarters. No recession followed.
Why?
One key reason:
The labor market held strong.
No surge in jobless claims. No layoffs. No panic.
8 / Where Do We Stand Today?
Current jobless claims: flat.
Hiring remains strong.
This isn’t 2008 (yet).
This isn’t 2001 (yet).
More like... 2011?
9 / Scenario #2: Breakdown ahead?
- If unemployment starts to spike
- If earnings miss next quarter
- If GDP goes negative again
Then we could repeat 2008 or 2001.
Stay alert. False rallies often trap late buyers.
10 / Scenario #3: Sideways Grind
Markets hate uncertainty.
When the data is mixed, you don’t get fireworks—you get chop.
This “purge and pause” phase isn’t sexy.
But it sets the stage for the next big move.
2011 and 1998 are great playbooks.
11 / Why this scenario might be most likely:
- Earnings holding
- Labor solid
- No full-blown crisis
- But tariffs + tight credit = drag
Expect consolidation.
Tight ranges. Breakouts that fade.
A slow grind higher if macro stays stable.
12 / What Smart Money Is Doing
While everyone’s guessing…
Institutions are rotating:
- into value
- into energy
- into gold & crypto as hedges
They're not chasing highs.
They’re positioning for volatility.,
13 / Key Levels to Watch
Set alerts. Trade the levels.
Not the narratives.
- S&P 500 April low = critical support
- ATH = obvious breakout level
- 200-day MA = long-term sentiment gauge
Whichever breaks first tells the next story.
14 / Zoom out. Time your moves.
Markets are made of cycles.
Each cycle has traps.
Retail gets wrecked when it chases hype or panic.
Pros wait for confirmation.
Your edge = patience + data.
15 / Prepare for Chop, Position for Opportunity
We’re not in crisis
We’re not in euphoria
We’re in the in-between
That’s where fortunes are built.
Not by prediction—but by positioning.
- Eyes on earnings
- Eyes on labor
- Eyes on GDP Q2
Follow for more.
