๐1. General Context and Short-Term Trend
Short-Term Trend: The last dozen or so candles have shown strong fluctuations โ a typical sideways market (consolidation) after a clear upward impulse and a quick drop. The price is currently trading in the range of around $104,900โ$106,500.
Recent Strong Move: Clear upward impulse from around $104,900 to around $106,900, followed by a quick correction.
๐2. Supports and Resistances (H1)
Supports:
$105,000โ$105,200 โ Bottom of local wicks and several demand tests.
$104,900 โ Lowest point of the last few hours, clear buyer reaction.
Resistances:
$106,200โ$106,400 โ Upper area of โโseveral candles, strong price rejection.
106,900โ107,000 USD โ The peak of the last impulse, a place of clear supply.
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3. Candlestick formations and price action
Pin bar / long wick: Candles with long lower wicks are visible around 105,000 USD, which suggests that buyers are defending support.
Double top? (Double top): Peaks around 106,900 USD (03.06 and 04.06) โ a classic signal of a potential change in direction to the lower.
Possible consolidation: The last few hours have been a series of alternating candles, signaling the lack of a clear advantage of bulls or bears.
๐ง 4. Technical indicators (MACD and RSI)
MACD (lower panel)
The MACD line crossed the signal line from the bottom to the top, then a quick correction and currently the MACD is close to zero โ no clear trend, momentum has slowed down.
MACD Histogram: Declining, close to zero, suggesting potential lack of strong trend and possibility of further consolidation.
RSI (middle panel)
RSI value ~44โ48 โ not overbought or oversold, neutral market state.
No divergence โ RSI generally follows price, no strong divergences are visible.
RSI bounced off 30 (tested oversold zone and returned to neutral range).
๐ง 5. What could be important?
Volatility Squeeze: Low volatility after a sharp move often heralds another impulse.
Potential Fakeout: If support at $104,900 is broken falsely (e.g. quick wick and return), a move up could occur.
No clear trend on the hourly chart, rather sideways market in the short term.
๐Summary and scenarios
Scenario 1 (bullish):
If the $105,000-$104,900 level holds, we can expect a test of $106,200-$106,400 and perhaps another attempt to approach $107,000.
Scenario 2 (bearish):
If the $104,900 support is broken (with a candle closed below this level), the next target is around $104,500 and below.
What to watch out for?
Timing of macro data releases - may increase volatility.
Sudden breakouts from consolidation - no trend = higher risk of sudden, false moves.
