The next move in the Bitcoin market: watch these mining signals for clues. The Bitcoin [BTC] Market feels like it’s stuck in limbo. Prices are strong, but the momentum simply isn’t convincing. It almost seems like one move and BTC could wipe out all its gains from May, falling below six figures.
With so much at stake, caution seems to be the smartest play. But unlike the broader Bitcoin market, there is a sector sitting on the fat margins: the miners. Their production costs are much lower than the current price of Bitcoin, giving them outstanding profits. Historically, miners have rushed to take profits when the pressure is on. So, while the market waits, should we be watching the miners more closely?
Mining economics after the hearing. After the halving in April 2024, miners saw their rewards cut from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC overnight, and that hit hard. The issue is that, while rewards are halved every four years, the cost of mining a block doesn’t get cheaper. You’re burning the same power, paying the same bills, but now earning half per block. Naturally, this sent average mining costs upward.
At the end of April, it shot up to around $90,000 per BTC, while the price stubbornly sat near $60k. That mismatch created a sideways action loop, with the Bitcoin market trapped in a narrow range.
Why? Because what comes after the death is a classic miner playbook: Reserve offers.
Bitcoin Market takes a plunge, and miner revenues start to bleed. In other words, the mounting pressure forces miners to cash out before their profit margins (the spot price of BTC – Production cost) get crushed even further, accelerating a complete mining capitulation phase.
Bitcoin Market stuck in limbo, miners running ahead. A year out from the fourth halving, the average cost to mine a single bitcoin is still around $91,105, while the Bitcoin market has been rolling sideways with BTC stuck between $103K and $105K.
Sure, Bitcoin posted a solid ROI of 11.12% in May and even tagged a new all-time high. In turn, pushing the Bitcoin market into a new wave of profits. But if we keep score, miners may have walked away with the largest slice of the pie. May 2025 turned out to be their best month since the halving in April 2024. According to the block, miners raked in massive revenues of $1.52 billion, $20 million of that just from on-chain fees. That said, early warning signs are emerging.
The miner position index (MPI) has turned back above zero, hinting that some miners may already be moving coins to exchanges. Historically, large inflows tend to precede capitulation events, especially when spot prices flirt with the average production cost. This puts Bitcoin in a pressure zone. If BTC loses its current range, it might make sense for some miners to pull back while margins are still juicy.
Could that be the next spark for volatility in the Bitcoin market? It is definitely one of the key triggers to watch.