💥【Trend Judgment】Dimension
1️⃣ Technical Indicator Resonance Law
Bullish Signal:
✅MACD Double Line Golden Cross + Daily Close Stabilizes above MA60
✅Bollinger Bands contraction followed by upward breakout of the midline, combined with RSI<30 oversold rebound (win rate increases to 68%)
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Bearish Signal:
❌MACD Top Divergence (Price hits new high but red bars shrink) + 4-hour K-line breaks below the lower Bollinger Band
❌Ascending Wedge Breakdown (After a surge, three consecutive daily bearish candles confirm trend reversal)
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Trend Verification:
🔍 When breaking through key levels, the trading volume needs to increase to 1.5 times the average volume of the previous 3 days
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2️⃣ Market Sentiment Contrarian Indicator
When the Fear and Greed Index >80, gradually open short BTC quarterly contracts (this strategy avoided a 15% drop in April 2024)
A sudden drop in exchange USDT interest rates often indicates retail leverage overheating, improving contrarian win rates
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🎯【Position Opening】Entry Model
1️⃣ Do 📈 Gold Points
Support Level Pyramid Positioning: Initial position of 30% at daily Fibonacci 338.2% retracement level, increase position by 20% for every 3% drop
Breakout Pullback Sniping: After a strong breakout above previous highs, enter at a pullback of 1%-2% from the breakout point
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2️⃣ Special Market Response
Contract Magic Spell: 77 days before the quarterly contract expiration, the price reversal probability is 61% (December 2024 delivery week dropped 8%)
Black Swan Event: When rumors of an exchange outage occur, immediately close positions and open reverse hedge positions (profited 23% when a small exchange went down)
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🛡️【Risk Control System】Defense Line
1️⃣ Dynamic Stop Loss System
📈 Single Stop Loss: Set 5% below support level
📉 Single Stop Loss: Set 3% above resistance level
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2️⃣ Leverage Scenario Management
Volatile Market (Daily Fluctuation <3%): 3x leverage + build positions in 3 batches
One-sided Market (ETH Breaks New High): 8x leverage + breakout position increase strategy
Loss Cut Line: Altcoin leverage ≤3x, mainstream coin leverage ≤10x
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😤【Mentality Training】Rule
1️⃣ Surge Restraint:
After BTC rises more than 15% in a single day, the probability of a pullback the next day is 70% (12% pullback after a surge in April 2025)
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2️⃣ Calmness in a Crash:
After a 20% drop in a single day, the probability of a rebound exceeding 10% within 3 days is 65%
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3️⃣ Discipline Reinforcement:
Write daily logs to record reasons for opening positions and emotional fluctuations (consecutive records for 30 days increased win rate by 40%)
After making a profit, mandatory rest for 24 hours to avoid FOMO mentality
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4️⃣ System Trust:
Refuse to open positions based on feelings, strictly execute pre-set strategies (sticking to the systematic strategy in September 2024 avoided a 34% drop)
Close trading software during major events to avoid overreactions
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🌈 Formula and Action Guide
Weights = Technical (40%) + Risk Control (30%) + Mentality (20%) + Luck (10%)$ETH $BTC #Strategy增持比特币 #币安Alpha上新
