I. The Technical Foundation of UNI Tokens

UNI is the governance token of Uniswap, the largest decentralized exchange in the Ethereum ecosystem, born during the "DeFi Summer" wave on September 16, 2020. As a revolutionary protocol in the DeFi space, Uniswap fundamentally transformed the traditional order book model based on the automated market maker (AMM) model, with its core innovation being:

  • x*y=k constant product formula: Liquidity providers (LP) deposit two types of assets in fixed proportions, with prices calculated automatically through mathematical formulas.

  • Liquidity Pool: A decentralized asset reserve pool that supports trustless asset exchange

  • Front-end Permissionless Access: Any user can interact directly through smart contracts

The initial distribution of UNI tokens adopted the "retroactive airdrop + liquidity mining" model, airdropping 150 million UNI (15% of total supply) to early users, liquidity providers, and developers, while the remaining tokens are released linearly over four years.

II. Economic Model and Value Capture Mechanism

The total supply of UNI is 1 billion tokens, with a current circulating supply of approximately 230 million tokens (as of Q2 2024). Its economic model includes multiple value capture dimensions:

  1. Governance Power Value
    UNI holders can participate in protocol upgrade voting, including:

    • Trading Fee Structure Adjustment (current default 0.3%)

    • Fee Distribution Rules (LP/community/developer revenue sharing ratio)

    • Cross-chain Expansion Roadmap Decision

  2. Fee Sharing Potential
    Currently, 25% of the transaction fees generated by the protocol are locked for the community treasury. If fee sharing is activated in the future (e.g., UNI holders receive 50% of fees), based on the current average daily trading volume ($500M), UNI holders could achieve an annualized income of $450 million.

  3. Staking and Liquidity Incentives
    By staking UNI, one can participate in:

    • Liquidity Mining (annualized returns of approximately 3-5%)

    • Governance Proposal Voting Rewards

    • Layer 2 Network Staking (e.g., Arbitrum Nova)

III. Market Performance and Competitive Landscape

Price Trend (Data Source: CoinGecko):

  • Market Cap Ranking: Top 30 (approximately $2.1 billion)

Competitive Advantage:

  1. Network Effect Barrier
    Uniswap holds about 65% of the DEX market share (DeFi Llama data), with cumulative trading volume surpassing $1.2 trillion, forming a strong liquidity moat.

  2. Technical Iteration Capability

    • The V3 version introduced concentrated liquidity, improving capital efficiency by 400%

    • Dynamic fee model in development for V4 (fee rates adjusted based on volatility)

    • Layer 2 Deployment (Arbitrum, Optimism) reduces Gas costs by 90%

  3. Accelerating Institutional Adoption
    Starting in 2023, institutions like Jump Trading and Paradigm are conducting large trades through Uniswap V3, with daily large order proportions reaching 27%.

Main Competitors:

Tokens Protocol Market Share Technical Features

AAVE Lending Protocol 12% Liquidity Staking

MKR MakerDAO 8% Stablecoin Issuance

CRV Curve 18% Stablecoin AMM Optimization

IV. Future Prospects and Potential Opportunities

  1. Layer 2 Expansion Revolution
    Uniswap V4 is expected to launch by the end of 2024, achieving:

    • Dynamic Fees (0.05%-1% adjustable)

    • Cross-chain Aggregated Liquidity

    • ZK-Rollup Integration (Gas fees reduced to below $0.1)

  2. Institutional Infrastructure Upgrade
    As the SEC tightens scrutiny on CEX, institutions like Grayscale and Fidelity are testing Uniswap's batch auction interface, which could lead to a 300% increase in daily trading volume from institutional inflows.

  3. Governance Model Evolution
    Community Proposal 045 proposes a "quadratic voting" mechanism, which will balance the governance weight between whales and retail investors, potentially unlocking governance premiums for UNI.

  4. Cross-chain Interoperability
    By connecting to multi-chain ecosystems through NEAR and Cosmos IBC protocols, Uniswap's liquidity fragmentation issue will be resolved, potentially expanding the market size by five times.

V. Risks and Challenges

  1. Regulatory Uncertainty
    The U.S. SEC's allegations that AMM is regarded as a securities trading platform remain unresolved; if V4 is ruled as a security issuance, it could trigger a sell-off.

  2. MEV Attack Threat
    Arbitrage bots from front-end aggregators (like 0x) lead to MEV (Miner Extractable Value) losses accounting for 1.2% of trading volume, affecting LP returns.

  3. Competitive Protocol Impact
    The volatility-aware market-making algorithm launched by dYdX V4 diverts 15% of liquidity in the derivatives trading sector.

  4. Token Inflation Pressure
    The 770 million UNI tokens that are not unlocked (77% of the total) will be gradually released over the next four years, with an average annual inflation rate of around 19%.

VI. Investment Value Assessment Model

Based on DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) and relative valuation methods:

  • DCF Valuation: Assuming annual fee income of 450 million, discount rate of 254.5 billion, discount rate of 25%, the agreement value is approximately 450 million, discount rate of 251.8 billion

  • Relative Valuation: Comparing to Coinbase (P/S 8x), Uniswap's valuation center is approximately $3.2 billion

  • Current Market Value: $2.1 billion (discount rate of approximately 34%)

Conclusion: The current price of UNI is at a historical low; long-term value depends on the progress of Layer 2 implementation and institutional adoption rates, while short-term volatility is influenced by the approval progress of Ethereum spot ETFs.

Conclusion: The cornerstone of a decentralized future

UNI is not just a trading tool but also a governance hub of the Web3 economy. As Layer 2 becomes more prevalent and compliance frameworks improve, its value may evolve from "transaction fee sharing certificates" to "equity in open financial infrastructure." Investors need to pay attention to V4 technical progress, the speed of institutional capital inflows, and regulatory dynamics to seize the core narrative of the next DeFi bull market.