In the long history of cryptocurrency, Dogecoin has always been a dramatic presence. Looking back at the market fluctuations in November 2024, when the news of the U.S. first interest rate cut resonated with Trump's election, the cryptocurrency market experienced a long-awaited explosion. At that time, Musk's frequent interactions with Trump sparked market discussions, causing Dogecoin's price to surge from $0.10 to $0.48, nearly a 5-fold increase within a month. As a researcher who has long focused on the value of cryptocurrencies, I warned of risks in articles written on November 14 and 25 — such surges based on celebrity effects often come with significant bubbles, and the subsequent price drop to $0.41 validated this judgment.
Warren Buffett, the stock god, once profoundly pointed out: 'Buying stocks is buying companies.' This principle also applies to the field of cryptocurrency. Investors need to penetrate the surface of codes and prices to examine whether there is a sustainable value creation capability behind them. Just as Xiaomi reconstructed the smartphone market through 'extreme cost-performance ratio', allowing hundreds of millions of users to enjoy technological inclusiveness, true value investment should focus on innovative entities that address social pain points and promote technological progress.
The birth of Dogecoin was originally a joke — two engineers launched this product of 'tip culture' with a Shiba Inu meme to satirize the speculative frenzy of cryptocurrency. Its founders have long stated that they never endowed Dogecoin with a grand vision for development. Even in 2021, when its market value soared to $87 billion due to Musk's endorsement, its essence still remains as an 'air coin' lacking technological breakthroughs and practical applications. Currently, Dogecoin's infinite issuance mechanism of adding 5 billion coins annually keeps its price constantly under selling pressure, and the market's excessive reliance on celebrity effects further makes it a high-risk speculative target.
The market frenzy in November 2024 is essentially the last collective surge during the transformation of cryptocurrency from 'speculative experimentation' to 'technical implementation'. The era of rapidly creating wealth through white paper storytelling and celebrity endorsements has already ended. Currently, the blockchain industry is entering the 'value deepening' phase: Beijing's 'Chang'an Chain' has achieved fully autonomous controllable technology to support innovation in government services and supply chain finance; the Yangtze River Delta's 'Spark Chain Network' supernodes are online, promoting the integration of the industrial internet and digital economy. These cases confirm the vast potential of blockchain technology in improving social collaboration efficiency and building trust mechanisms.
For the cryptocurrency market in 2025, investors need to be wary of falling into the 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) trap. If one blindly chases after Dogecoin's historic gains, they are likely to miss out on real value opportunities again. Currently, some quality projects are experiencing a 'value low point' phase — they have been continuously investing in technological research and development over the past few years, achieving breakthroughs in distributed storage, privacy computing, cross-chain interoperability, etc., but are undervalued due to lagging market perception. These projects will lead the way in the industry paradigm shift and become the core driving force of the next bull market.
The ultimate value of cryptocurrency lies in its ability to promote the transformation of social production relationships. The story of Dogecoin is nearing its end, while the true legend of blockchain technology is just beginning. As Buffett said: 'The time I like to hold a stock the most is forever.' True value investment should transcend short-term fluctuations and anchor on innovative entities that can solve social problems and create long-term value. In the market wave of 2025, let us pierce through the fog with the light of reason and capture the true essence of wealth in the deep sea of technological breakthroughs.
