The Bank of Japan may slow down its bond-buying reduction (tightening) steps after April 2026, which could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market!
If this happens, it indicates that Japan is still 'injecting liquidity', and the yen will be quite abundant. This is usually a good thing, meaning high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies can continue to enjoy the support of 'cheap money'. In the past, when money was loose, assets like Bitcoin indeed tended to rise more easily because borrowing costs were low, and people were more willing to 'take a gamble'.
However, while loosening is beneficial for the cryptocurrency market, risks are also hidden here! If this leads to significant fluctuations in the yen exchange rate, or if major global central banks (like the Federal Reserve) implement contrary policies to Japan, then the market's vulnerability could be magnified, and funds may flee from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
Therefore, it is advised that everyone remain vigilant and pay attention to the Bank of Japan's meeting in mid-June. The yen exchange rate (especially against the US dollar): if it breaks above 150 or falls below 140, the movements could be significant.
The US inflation and debt risks: this determines how tight the global 'purse strings' will be.
The most alarming scenario is if Japan's easing policy coincides with global risk events like the US commercial real estate crisis, Bitcoin may oscillate between the identities of 'high-risk asset' and 'safe haven asset', leading to extremely volatile price fluctuations; it is essential to be prepared for both directions!