Analysis of Binance ALPHA projects
1. Current situation:
• Binance ALPHA focuses on early projects, including meme coins, DeFi, AI, and other trending areas (e.g., projects like ai16z, Freya by Virtuals, Cookie DAO). However, according to data, 41% of the 29 tokens launched in December 2024 showed a decline in FDV (fully diluted market capitalization), raising doubts about their reliability.
• Projects are selected based on criteria: strong community, alignment with trends (AI, NFT, ZK), presence of Tier-1 investors, public team, and tokenomics audits. However, meme coins are often chosen solely for social popularity.
2. Technical indicators:
• Since the order book for ALPHA is hidden, standard technical analysis is limited. Indirect data can be used:
• RSI: For most ALPHA tokens, RSI often stays in the overbought zone (>70) due to FOMO in the first days after listing but then falls to 30–40, indicating a correction.
• Volumes: High volumes in the first 15–75 minutes after listing (optimal selling window), followed by a decline. For example, the average 3-day decline is -30%, and the 7-day decline is -37%.
• Patterns: Sharp pumps followed by dumps due to low liquidity are often observed.
3. Fundamental factors:
• Projects with strong communities (≥50,000 active subscribers) and TVL ≥ $10M have a higher chance of success.
• However, the lack of transparency and high volatility make them resemble speculative assets. Some users on X refer to ALPHA as a “liquidity exit platform” rather than a genuine investment opportunity.
Forecast
1. Short term (until the end of June 2025):
• Given the statistics, most ALPHA tokens lose 30–37% of their value within 3–7 days after listing. Only 2 out of 11 tokens (SIGN and HAEDAL) reached ATH after the first day. For new projects, expect a pump in the first 15–75 minutes followed by a correction.
• Growth potential: projects with strong hype (e.g., AI tokens like COOKIE, AVA, ZEREBRO) can yield +30–100% in the first hours, but a decline is likely afterward.
2. Medium term (until the end of 2025):
• Projects that survive and show growth are likely to be related to AI or DeFi (e.g., ai16z with a market capitalization of $2B). Potential growth for successful tokens: 50–150%, but only if they make it to the Binance spot exchange.
• For most tokens with low FDV (< $1B), a decline of 40–70% is likely.
3. Long term (2026+):
• Successful projects (with Tier-1 investors, audits, and TVL) can grow 5–10 times if they receive listing and market support. For example, ai16z has already shown potential.
• However, most ALPHA tokens, especially meme coins, may depreciate due to a lack of real value.
Recommendations
• Trading strategy: Use Quick Buy to purchase in the first 15–75 minutes after listing, sell 80% of the position when it rises by 30–100%. Set a trailing stop-loss at -10% for the remaining 20%.
• Risks: Low transparency, high volatility, and no guarantee of listing on Binance. It's more speculation than investment.
• Advice: Keep an eye on announcements from official Binance channels and research projects (team, tokenomics, TVL). Only participate with an amount you are prepared to lose.
Trade with caution! #BinanceALPHA #CryptoAnalysis
