Bull run is roaring or Over!

As June 2025 kicks off, Bitcoin appears to be losing momentum, hovering between $105,000 and $106,000. Once soaring above the $112,000 all-time high, the leading cryptocurrency is now facing increasing skepticism from investors and analysts alike. The downtrend in market capitalization reflects growing caution, and ETF outflows continue to rise, raising critical questions: Is the bull run ending? Has a new bearish phase begun?

ETF Outflows: A Warning Sign?
Since Bitcoin touched its record high of $112,000, institutional investors have been pulling back. ETF outflows indicate a loss of confidence or profit-taking amid uncertainty. Large-scale withdrawals typically pressure prices, and with retail investors often following institutional cues, this pattern can trigger deeper corrections.

Macroeconomic Events to Watch: June 2025 in Focus
Several major economic events are scheduled for June, especially in the U.S., that could impact crypto and broader market trends:

1. June 12 – Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report
Expected:
MoM: +0.3%
YoY: +3.1%
Core CPI: +5.0%
The elevated Core CPI indicates persistent underlying inflation, which could make the Fed hesitant to ease monetary policy—an unfriendly scenario for risk assets like crypto.

2. June 13 – Producer Price Index (PPI) Report
Expected:
MoM: +0.2%
YoY: +0.4%
Core PPI: +2.6%
A cooler PPI suggests easing pressure from the supply side, yet the divergence from Core CPI points to mixed signals.

3. June 17–18 – FOMC Meeting
Expected Decision:
Interest rate to hold at 4.25%–4.50%
No rate cuts expected
Cautious tone likely due to trade tensions
The Federal Reserve maintaining high rates may suppress crypto enthusiasm. Investors may prefer traditional assets if yields remain attractive.

4. S&P 500 Remains Strong
Early June sees the S&P 500 near 6118.71, continuing May’s bullish momentum.
While traditional equities climb, Bitcoin's stagnant price could signal a sectoral rotation or a temporary divergence between risk assets.

5. Global Perspective – ECB Rate Cuts Looming
The European Central Bank (ECB) may cut rates by 25 basis points.

With Eurozone inflation near 2.0%, looser monetary policy could boost European investment flows—potentially benefiting crypto if liquidity rises globally.

Conclusion: Bearish Shift or Short-Term Correction?
The crypto market appears to be in a correction phase, not a confirmed bear market—yet. While the ETF outflows and stagnant BTC price around $105K–$106K are concerning, broader macroeconomic catalysts in June could either reignite the bull trend or cement a downtrend.

Investors should closely monitor:The CPI and PPI reportsFOMC policy decisionsTraditional market behaviorGlobal central bank moves

For now, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Traders are advised to stay cautious, use stop losses, and prepare for increased volatility.
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