$BTC

Price made a lower high at ~111,980.

• Currently hovering near local support zone (~105,800–104,800).

• Failed to break and hold above 106,000 decisively, showing weak buyer strength.

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🔻 Chances of a Drop (Bearish Case):

Probability: 60–70% (Short-Term)

Reasons:

• Bearish MACD crossover and histogram slope.

• RSI pointing down without bullish divergence.

• Price rejecting 25 MA.

• No fresh bullish catalyst evident in the chart.

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🔻 Downside Levels to Watch:

• Support 1: 104,800 (current local support)

• Support 2: 103,000

• Support 3: 101,000

• Strong support: ~97,300 (previous breakout point and visible on daily chart)

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🔼 Bullish Recovery Trigger:

To flip bullish short-term:

• Break and close above 106,800, reclaiming MA25.

• MACD turns positive.

• RSI(6) breaks above 60 and rising volume confirms it.

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✅ Final Take:

As of now, BTC is showing weakness and the probability of a pullback is higher than a breakout. A safer approach is to wait for confirmation near support or a breakout before taking a position.