Many people may be pondering: what is the most important thing in the cryptocurrency trading market, mindset, technical analysis, or luck? Today, let's have a good discussion about this.
We need to clearly recognize that in this market, spot trading and contract trading are completely two different worlds.
First, let's talk about spot trading, which is divided into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. For those who prefer to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum for stability, it basically means buying when no one is paying attention and selling when the crowd is in a frenzy. This doesn't require technical skills and is unrelated to luck; psychology plays a major role. Firstly, having the courage to buy when no one cares during a bear market, and then having the patience to hold after buying, followed by being decisive to cash out during a booming market without being overly anxious about gains and losses. In contrast, not every altcoin will rise during a bull market; many will disappear or crash to zero. Certainly, you will do some research before buying, similar to the reasons for choosing this project, its market, vision, and everything related to it that you've thoroughly investigated. Finally, when you decide to invest, your mindset might be good, confident that you can hold during a bull market. At this point, luck becomes particularly important. What kind of luck? Of course, it’s that the project you chose does not let you down, survives the bear market, and quickly rewards you when the bull market arrives; conversely, if your luck is bad and you placed the wrong bet, you survive the bear market but become nameless in the bull market. More importantly, you might miss out on the entire bull market. This is why it is recommended to choose Bitcoin and Ethereum during a bear market as they will undoubtedly rise in a bull market. If both of these cool off, then there’s no point in playing anymore.
Compared to the cyclical trading of spot trading, contract trading requires a certain level of technical analysis. Whether you are a trend trader or a short-term trader, you cannot avoid this so-called analysis. However, technical analysis is merely the foundation for opening and closing positions, or rather, all kinds of analyses are just psychological comfort for placing a bet. The result of the analysis is to convince yourself that you need to open positions this way. Once you have opened a position, I think you can only leave it to luck. Even if your analysis is flawless and the target is moving in the direction you analyzed, can you withstand the sudden price spikes and the sudden need to stop loss in this unregulated centralized exchange? If luck is not on your side, the price doesn’t change, and your position is gone; if luck is on your side, the latest price hits your stop-loss target but does not reach it, continuing to move in the direction of your analysis is indeed satisfying.
In fact, opinions about contracts have always been mixed. Capturing a wave of trends for profit can be as continuous as the tide, but the process is not as wonderful as it appears on the screen. We do not know how much psychological struggle and torment one has to go through in the middle. Supporters of contracts will say that they have a stable trading system paired with good position management, making contracts not scary; while opponents of contracts should account for the majority, as there are too many examples of people falling into the abyss because of contracts. We are still human and cannot execute like machines. Therefore, I have always admired traders who are good at contracts and even think they are somewhat abnormal, with abnormal mindset management and execution.
So, overall, I think in this market, luck is greater than mindset, which is greater than technical analysis.
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