90555646292 Key Level Contest: The four-hour chart tests the $2420 Ichimoku cloud support, if it holds or rebounds, otherwise it will drop to $2260; the daily EMA50 support is effective, but the EMA200 downward pressure suppresses the long-term trend. Indicators Divergence: RSI 43.73 is neutral, short-term moving average breakout shows bullish dominance, but trading volume is decreasing and the perpetual contract funding rate is 0.062%, a historical high, beware of bullish overcrowding risks.

Ethereum 2.0 Prague upgrade optimizes Layer2 costs, handling 95% of stablecoin transactions; DeFi TVL and NFT trading volume remain first. Institutions and Deflation: BlackRock and 9 other ETH ETFs hold 2.59 million coins worth $6.65 billion; EIP-1559 has burned over 5 million ETH this year, with 36 million coins staked accounting for 30% of the supply, potentially entering continuous deflation by 2025.

Binance large trader long-short ratio is 6.15, but whales transferred 3500 ETH to exchanges; $2.4 billion in options expire on May 30, with 97% of put options having a strike price ≤ $2600. Leverage Risk: Frequent liquidations across the network, if it falls below $2400 or triggers a short rebound, breaking above $2700 could trigger $800 million in short liquidations.

Macro: Federal Reserve policy and intensified US-China trade war increase volatility; Regulation: SEC delays approval of ETH ETFs possibly until 2025, uncertainty in DeFi/NFT regulation; Liquidity: Circle stablecoin IPO on June 5 may impact the market.

Short Term: Lightly buy between $2450-$2500 with a stop loss at $2400; if it falls below $2400, short between $2350-$2400 with a stop loss at $2450; Long Term: Dollar-cost averaging + staking annualized at 3.2%, BTC/ETH allocation 6:4; individual stop loss ≤ 2%, position ≤ 20%.

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