I. Recent Market Review As of June 2, 2025, MASK coin (U.S. stock code: MASK) closed at $3.34, down 5.65% from the previous day, with a daily trading volume of 30,700 and a total market capitalization of approximately $37.575 million. Technically, there is short-term pullback pressure: the MACD histogram remains negative and gradually lengthens, indicating bearish strength; the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought zone (87.34), and the KDJ indicator (18) has entered the oversold area but has not formed a golden cross, reflecting intense market bull-bear competition.
It is worth noting that there was a significant rise at the end of May: after the announcement of the strategic acquisition of the Lens blockchain-native social application Orb.club on May 30, the price surged 31.08% to $2.7 within 24 hours, with trading volume skyrocketing to $660 million. On-chain data shows that whale addresses increased their holdings by 24.91% within a week. This event pushed MASK coin's overall upward volatility in May, but a pullback occurred in early June due to cooling market sentiment. II. Factors Driving Price Changes (I) Upward Momentum
Ecosystem Expansion and Strategic Acquisition
Mask Network completed its acquisition of Orb.club on May 30, 2025. The latter has over 50,000 monthly active users and features such as viral stickers and native tipping mechanisms. After integrating into the MaskDAO ecosystem, it will create synergistic effects with components like Next.ID and Web3.bio, building a 'Web3 Social Map.' This acquisition is seen as a critical step for Mask Network's transformation from a 'plugin tool' to a 'social ecosystem,' directly stimulating the market's reassessment of its long-term value.Institutional Capital Entry and Token Economic Model
The shareholding ratio of institutions such as Grayscale's parent company DCG and Animoca Brands has increased by 16%, and at the end of May, they initiated an 'institutional buying spree,' pushing prices past key resistance levels. Additionally, the project team plans to incorporate MASK tokens into the governance voting fuel system. As the demand for Web3 social grows, token consumption may see exponential growth, similar to the rising logic of the UNI token in 2020.Industry Trends and Market Expectations
Decentralized Social (SocialFi) is seen as one of the core breakout points in the Web3 field in 2025, with the global market expected to grow from $1.2 billion to $12.5 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 45%. Mask Network, as one of the first projects to deploy crypto plugins on traditional social platforms, may become the preferred partner for giants like Twitter to enter Web3, bringing a valuation premium due to this expectation gap.
(II) Downward Pressure
Market Sentiment and Overall Volatility
At the end of May, the global cryptocurrency market experienced a pullback, with Bitcoin (the big coin) and Ethereum (the big ether) encountering resistance at $110,000 and $2,700, leading to capital withdrawal from altcoins. As a high-volatility asset, MASK coin is significantly affected by the overall decline in market risk appetite.Regulatory Uncertainty and Policy Risk
The U.S. SEC may bring social tokens under securities regulation, while after the South Korean elections, there are efforts to legalize Bitcoin spot ETFs, but the implementation time for cryptocurrency taxes remains uncertain, potentially leading to short-term selling pressure. Additionally, the introduction of the Hong Kong (stablecoin regulation draft) is beneficial for the compliant ecosystem, but the regulatory details for decentralized projects remain unclear.Technical Overbought Conditions and Profit Taking
The rapid rise at the end of May caused the MASK coin's short-term RSI indicator to enter the overbought zone (87.34), leading some investors to take profits above $2.7, resulting in a price drop to $3.34. On-chain data shows that after May 30, some whale addresses began to reduce holdings, exacerbating market selling pressure.
III. Future Trend Outlook
(I) Short-term Trend (1-3 Months)
Key Support and Resistance Levels: The current price is supported around $3.3 in the short term. If it falls below the $3 mark, it may drop to $2.8. The resistance levels above are $3.6 (May 29 high) and $4 (the downward trend line since February 2025).
Technical Signals: The KDJ indicator is oversold but has not formed a golden cross; the MACD green bars are shortening. If trading volume increases moderately and breaks through $3.6, it may trigger a technical rebound; conversely, if there is continuous declining volume, further corrections to $2.5 should be watched closely.
Event-driven: The implementation of cryptocurrency policies after the June South Korean elections, the market response to Mask Network's listing on Dcoin (news from May 27), and user growth data from Orb.club will be key catalysts.
(II) Mid-term Trend (3-12 Months)
Ecosystem Development and User Growth: The integration effects of Orb.club will gradually become apparent in the next 3-6 months. If monthly active users exceed 100,000 and drive the average daily transaction volume of MASK tokens to over 1,000, it may push the price towards $5.
Industry Cycle and Capital Situation: The 'Altcoin Season' usually occurs 12-18 months after Bitcoin's halving in 2024 (i.e., April - October 2025). MASK coin, as a project with millions of users and a rapidly expanding ecosystem, may replicate the explosive market performance of the UNI token.
Risk Warning: Be cautious of the possibility that the Fed's rate cut expectations may fall short, the SEC tightening regulations on social tokens, and competitors (such as Arweave and Brave) making technological breakthroughs in the privacy social field.
(III) Long-term Investment Value
Core Competitiveness: Mask Network reduces user entry barriers through a 'Web2+Web3' dual-track strategy. Its browser extension has integrated over 20 mainstream DApps, with a single-day peak trading volume of $750,000, occupying a first-mover advantage in the privacy social space.
Token Economic Model: As governance voting, staking mechanisms (annualized yield of 25.76%), and burning mechanisms are gradually implemented, the scarcity and utility of MASK tokens will enhance, and there will be room for long-term valuation reassessment.
Potential Risks: If it fails to complete the transition from 'plugin tool' to 'social map' by the end of 2025, it may face user attrition and insufficient token value capture, similar to the early predicament of BAT tokens.
IV. Operational Suggestions
Short-term Traders: Can buy high and sell low in the $3.3-$3.6 range, with a stop loss set at $2.9; if there is a volume breakout above $3.6, they may cautiously chase longs, targeting $4.2.
Medium to Long-term Investors: It is recommended to gradually build positions in the $2.8-$3.2 range, with a holding proportion not exceeding 5% of the total position, and hedge risks with projects like AR (storage track) and RNDR (AI track).
Risk Control: Closely monitor South Korea's cryptocurrency tax policies, the Fed's monetary policies, and the progress of the Mask Network ecosystem. If it falls below $2.5, decisive stop-loss measures should be taken.
V. Conclusion
Recently, the MASK coin experienced a surge driven by positive news of ecosystem expansion but faced a short-term pullback due to cooling market sentiment and regulatory uncertainty. In the medium to long term, the explosive dividend of Web3 social, the entry of institutional capital, and optimization of the token economic model will support its value, but vigilance is needed regarding intensifying competition and policy risks. Investors should maintain a diversified position, use market fluctuations to seize opportunities for low purchases, and strictly set stop losses to control risks.
