$BTC Evening View:
Has the major drop ended at 103000? I believe the correction has not ended; rebounds are allowed during the correction process.
It won't just drop all the way down at once; now it is merely a natural rebound during the decline, and there will be a second test.
Of course, those who are bullish will always think the decline is just a correction, and that it has already corrected enough to rise, while those who are bearish will always think that the rise is just a rebound that cannot sustain itself. Who is right and who is wrong? Just like in love, can you clearly say who is right and who is wrong?
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Speaking with charts: The major asset made a brief upward surge towards the EMA 50-day moving average this morning, but did not hold it.
Moreover, the closing price did not end above the EMA 50-day moving average; it only poked up with a spike and then came back down.
Breaking down is easy; trying to go back up is not that easy, just like when it was previously unable to break below the 4-hour EMA 50-day moving average. When it drops to the EMA 50-day moving average, it can't drop further, leading to a rebound. The current rebound is not able to rise above the 4-hour EMA 50-day moving average, which is the same principle as the previous days when it could not drop below the EMA 50-day moving average. It needs to be tested multiple times to stand firmly above the 4-hour EMA 50-day moving average.
Currently, the major asset is just right on the EMA 20-day moving average, receiving support. If it can hold, it will test the EMA 50-day moving average upward; if it cannot hold and drops below the EMA 20-day moving average, according to the logic of moving averages, the most effective support would be the EMA 200-day moving average.
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If the major asset breaks 105184 with volume, one should go long on the right side; if it breaks down at 105015 with volume and cannot recover, one should go short on the right side. Pay attention to changes in volume.
To look upward at 106441-107390, the major asset must stabilize above 105641 on the hourly level; currently, it is just moving in a range.
On the 4-hour level, if it breaks 104647, it should pull back to 103675-103007; multiple tests of support will make it more solid.
Continuing to look at the chart: The Fibonacci 4-point closing on the hourly level of the major asset is just at 50, gaining support and rebounding upward.
If the rebound cannot create a new high, then the major asset will need to come down again to test 50; if it cannot hold on the second test at 50, it will aim for the 1:1 target position of 103000. Meeting adjourned.