OECD's Latest Forecast: The Federal Reserve May Keep Interest Rates Unchanged This Year, While Some Central Banks are Expected to Continue Cutting Rates
On June 3, the OECD released its Economic Outlook, predicting that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate level in 2024 and will not implement any rate cuts. This judgment is based on the fact that U.S. inflation has not yet stabilized or fallen back to the target range of 2%, keeping monetary policy cautious.
At the same time, the OECD pointed out that if inflation in other economies continues to approach or fall back to target levels, some central banks still have room to cut rates, especially in countries facing slowing growth or increasing debt pressure.
In short, the Federal Reserve may remain "on hold," while some countries may open a "rate cut channel." This will lead to further divergence in global monetary policy, affecting capital flows, exchange rates, and fluctuations in financial markets.
Investors should pay attention to the differences in inflation and interest rate expectations among countries, adjust asset allocations in a timely manner, and guard against market volatility brought about by policy turning points.
