From last night to this morning, this Bitcoin rebound is quite intriguing. Rather than saying it's a strong bull counterattack, it can be viewed as a classic case of bears getting stuck in the mud. The funding rate not only didn't decrease but actually increased, and the market performance slightly returned to positive, blatantly revealing the current market sentiment—no one is willing to short aggressively.

Observing the recent trend, each small rebound peak has slightly moved higher than the previous one. This 'boiling frog' style of the market has repeatedly frustrated short-sellers. The main players are methodically pushing floating short positions to the brink of liquidation through this 'advance three, retreat two' rhythm. This market structure can be considered the most heart-wrenching manipulation technique.

Focusing on the key level of 103k, this former support zone has now completely turned into a 'strategic reserve' of bull liquidity. To put it plainly, the limit buy orders piled up below are like a dense net waiting to catch, providing the main players with ample liquidation ammunition. Even if the price drops, these 'suicide squad' buy orders are enough to sustain a period of sideways fluctuations.

Short-term technical indicators show that if we exclude the interference of the early morning drop, the rebound could reach 106.8k. If bolstered by favorable news, 108k could be the ceiling. However, we must be cautious of the dense liquidity gaps above—each could become the 'guillotine' for bulls. Once the price encounters resistance at these key levels, the liquidation knife will turn towards the bull camp.

In my personal view, the market may first experience a technical rebound, followed by a pullback to confirm the lower boundary of the range. By inducing short-sellers to add positions through sideways consolidation, conditions can be created for the main players to push prices higher. But what if it unexpectedly breaks below the previous low? This would be akin to throwing a torch into a powder keg, directly triggering bull leverage liquidation. At that time, the integer level of 100k is likely difficult to protect, and there may even be a long wick pattern after a quick drop to 101k followed by a rapid pullback.

Special reminder: This week's heavyweight data is concentrated in the latter half of the night, especially during the early hours of Thursday and Friday. Historical experience shows that such time windows are most likely to produce 'midnight horror' type spike events. It is advised that everyone ensure proper position management before sleep to avoid encountering a 'black swan' surprise in their dreams.

The essence of the market is a machine for wealth redistribution, and it will never allow the majority to profit easily. The core logic of a fluctuating market is to gradually reclaim those 'seemingly easy' floating profits.