Whale Selling Intensifies as Confidence Erodes
#MANTRA. $OM has experienced a dramatic decline, falling from a high above $6 in March to under $0.32 today—a staggering 95% drawdown. This sharp collapse has significantly damaged investor confidence, exposing structural vulnerabilities and triggering a wave of capitulation. While user activity among retail investors has increased, the broader outlook remains uncertain. The key question now: is this uptick a sign of early recovery or merely residual activity in a faltering asset?
Institutional Retreat: A Major Red Flag
The behavior of large holders paints a grim picture. Whale wallets have aggressively exited the OM market, with netflows declining by 129% over the past month and over 4000% over the last 90 days. One isolated inflow spike of 234% provided a brief moment of optimism, but it lacked follow-through—suggesting speculative positioning rather than genuine conviction.
Historically, sustained inflows from large holders have preceded rallies. Their absence now raises red flags. OM currently lacks consistent accumulation, leaving it without the support typically necessary for a sustained rebound. In short: when whales retreat, markets bleed.
Holder Pain: Over 93% in Losses
An alarming 93.77% of OM holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses. This creates immense overhead supply and heavy resistance between the $0.32 and $5 levels. Any short-term price bounce is likely to be met with selling pressure from investors eager to exit breakeven or reduce losses—further dampening bullish momentum. The $0.40 zone, in particular, is a major psychological and technical barrier, likely crowded by those looking to offload positions.
Retail Activity Rises Amid Bearish Backdrop
Interestingly, OM’s wallet activity continues to grow. New wallet creation has increased by 21.84% in just one week, while active and zero-balance wallets rose by over 11%. This suggests a surge in retail interest, potentially driven by the belief that OM is approaching a bottom. However, retail investors alone have historically struggled to reverse strong downtrends, especially without institutional backing. While address growth signals ongoing attention, it may not be enough to change the trajectory.
Technical Indicators: Oversold, Not Recovered
OM’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 25, indicating extremely oversold conditions. Yet low RSI alone does not guarantee a reversal—particularly when accompanied by weak volume and unclear directional momentum. The market remains indecisive. Derivatives data show recent liquidations on both long and short positions around the $0.30–$0.35 range, underscoring the current volatility and lack of consensus.
Outlook: Sentiment Up, Structure Down
While optimism among retail traders persists, the overall market structure remains fragile. Without stronger inflows, clearer accumulation, and a compelling narrative to re-engage larger players, OM’s price risks drifting further. A meaningful recovery requires more than belief—it demands capital commitment from market movers and a shift in investor sentiment.
Until those factors materialize, $0.32 may not mark a bottom, but rather the beginning of a broader correction.
