Trump claimed on June 3, 2025, that the tariff policy was driving the U.S. economy to "thrive," but this assertion is significantly contradicted by multiple analyses. The core of his policy is to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting May 30, aiming to protect domestic industries and reduce the trade deficit by 12. In the short term, tariffs have indeed stimulated certain industries: U.S. steel companies saw their stock prices soar by 26% after hours, and the White House reported that tariff revenues reached a historic high of $23.28 billion in May.

However, economists generally warn that this "prosperity" has obvious limitations: in terms of economic costs, both business expenses and consumer burdens have significantly increased. U.S. automakers face a 12% rise in component tariff costs, while industries relying on steel and aluminum, such as food packaging and construction materials, are under pressure to raise prices, with the average annual expenditure for middle-income households expected to increase by $3,800. The risk of supply chain disruption has intensified, leading companies like General Motors and Ford to lower profit expectations by $5 billion, with some businesses forced to shift production capacity to Mexico.

The international retaliation effects have already emerged. The European Union announced a digital tax on U.S. tech giants, Canada imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. automobiles, and China weakened U.S. influence through the RCEP regional trade mechanism. Global capital markets have been shaken, with the Nasdaq entering bear market territory within a week, and tech stocks losing a total market value of $5.4 trillion.

Long-term structural risks cannot be ignored either. Yale University estimates that if the tariff policy persists for ten years, U.S. GDP growth could decline by 0.8%, resulting in a loss of 685,000 jobs, while other tax revenues could decrease by $394 billion. Historical experience shows that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s triggered a global trade contraction, and current policies could repeat the recession cycle of "beggar thy neighbor."

Trump is attempting to reshape trade rules through tariffs, but the costs of shrinking corporate profits, diminished consumer welfare, and alienation of allies are undermining the substance of his proclaimed "economic victory."

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