1. Short-term Volatility
    As of June 2, 2025, the price of ZEN coin is $10.03, an increase of 18.4% from $8.47 on May 31, with a 24-hour trading volume rising to $56.6 million. Notably, on June 1, the price surged by 68%, reaching a recent high. This fluctuation may be related to rapid changes in market sentiment, such as the expected inflow of institutional funds from the opening of Grayscale Trust (February 2025) or the expected adjustments in the token economic model triggered by the passing of the ZenIP42407 proposal.

  2. Historical Performance and Technical Pressure
    ZEN coin has seen extreme price volatility in its history, reaching a high of $168 in 2021 but retracing to around $20 in 2022. The current price is at a relatively low level, and technical indicators show that the MACD histogram remains negative, indicating strong bearish pressure, though the KDJ indicator is neutral, suggesting a potential for oversold rebounds. Additionally, on-chain data shows that Glassnode's accumulation trend score has peaked at 1.0, reflecting a strong overall buying sentiment in the market.

2. Project Dynamics and Token Economics Adjustment

  1. Network Upgrade and Proposal Implementation
    Binance launched the ZEN/USDC trading pair on April 8, 2025, and supported the Horizon network upgrade on March 11, enhancing liquidity and market recognition. Meanwhile, after the passing of the ZenIP42407 proposal, the ZEN token distribution structure underwent significant adjustments: the share of the Horizen Foundation increased from 20% to 32.5%, the DAO treasury accounted for 27.5%, and validator rewards made up 40%, with the halving mechanism replaced by a gradual reduction. This adjustment aims to optimize long-term ecosystem development, but in the short term, it may trigger market speculation regarding changes in token circulation.

  2. Grayscale Trust and Institutional Participation
    In February 2025, Grayscale submitted Form 8-K for Horizen Trust (HZEN) to the SEC and opened the channel for qualified investors, managing assets reaching $8.7 million. The involvement of institutional funds not only brings liquidity but also enhances market confidence, forming a positive feedback loop of 'institutional entry → price increase → retail following.'

3. Market Environment and Regulatory Policy Impact

  1. Overall Crypto Market Sentiment
    In May 2025, Ethereum surged 40% in three days, boosting market risk appetite. Although ZEN coin did not fully follow the market rise, its privacy attributes (zero-knowledge proof technology) may attract safe-haven funds. Additionally, the Fear and Greed Index reached 87 (Extreme Greed) when ZEN rose 20% in December 2024. Although there is currently no specific data, the on-chain accumulation trend indicates a generally optimistic market sentiment.

  2. Long-term Pressure from Regulatory Policies
    The EU plans to implement (anti-money laundering regulations) in 2027, banning anonymous accounts and privacy coins, which could pose long-term bearish pressure on ZEN coin. However, the policy has not yet been implemented, and Horizen's Zendoo sidechain technology can provide selective privacy within a compliance framework, alleviating regulatory risks to some extent.

4. Potential Risks and Future Outlook

  1. Liquidity and Market Manipulation Risks
    The circulating market value of ZEN coin is only $130 million, making it susceptible to large trades. In January 2025, there was a single-day surge in price without an increase in trading volume, suspected to be short-term manipulation. Although current trading volume has increased, the depth is still insufficient, and caution is needed for severe price fluctuations.

  2. Technology Implementation and Ecosystem Development
    The application scenarios of Horizen's privacy technology (such as supply chain tracking, anonymous media) have not been implemented on a large scale, resulting in limited user activity. If the DAO governance mechanism of the ZenIP42407 proposal can effectively promote ecosystem construction, it may inject long-term value into ZEN coin.

  3. Price Prediction and Strategy
    Analysts predict that by the end of 2025, ZEN coin may reach $56-71, but caution is needed regarding EU regulatory policies and the risk of market sentiment reversal. In the short term, if the price stabilizes above the $10 resistance level, it might further test $12; conversely, if it falls below the $8 support level, it may continue to decline.

Conclusion

The recent price fluctuations of ZEN coin are the result of the interplay between market sentiment, project dynamics, and external environment. The opening of Grayscale Trust, network upgrades, and token economic model adjustments are the main driving factors, while EU regulatory pressure and liquidity risks pose potential bearish threats. Investors need to closely monitor Horizen's ecosystem progress, on-chain data (such as changes in whale holdings), and regulatory policy trends, and devise trading strategies based on technical analysis.


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