You’re following someone who shares Long/Short signals. The risk-reward is 1:1 — every trade is a coin toss. You decide to copy them a few times, and things seem promising. One win. Then another. Then another. Before you know it, you’ve won 10 trades in a row just by following them. Your confidence kicks in. A thought crosses your mind:

“No way this is just luck. No regular person can be this accurate!”

But the truth is… they absolutely can.

In a game where each trade has a simple 50/50 outcome — just like flipping a coin — the odds of someone winning 10 trades in a row are exactly 1 in 1024. In other words, if 1024 people are trading at the same time, one of them is likely to hit that perfect 10-win streak. Not because they’re a genius. Just because math works like that.

And here’s the catch: the human brain hates randomness. It craves patterns, stories, meaning. So when you see someone who just won 10 in a row, you naturally assume they “know something.” You start to believe you’ve found someone who can carry you through the chaos. But the reality is, you’re only seeing the one person who got lucky — and not the thousand others who didn’t.

Worse yet, that belief leads you to scale up, take bigger risks, go all in — thinking you’ve found “the one.” But every time you open a trade, you’re the one carrying the risk from the very beginning. Hoping someone else can eliminate that pressure for you — just because they had a good run — is unrealistic at best, and dangerous at worst.

Trading is a game where no one can absorb the risk for you. They might be skilled. They might have a system. But the second you click “buy” or “sell,” the outcome — and the consequence — belong to you.

A 10-win streak might just be a lucky coin out of 1024. And if you mistake luck for talent, it won’t be long before the 11th trade reminds you how cold math can be.

#ProbabilityInTrading
#RiskIsYours