Recently, the most discussed topic with friends is whether you can make money by speculating in the cryptocurrency circle? It is extremely difficult to make a living by trading in the cryptocurrency circle. It is essentially an anti-human and high-risk survival challenge. The following analyzes its core difficulties from the dimensions of market rules, ability threshold, psychological loss, etc.:
1. Market essence: the anti-human dilemma of zero-sum game
Cryptocurrency trading is a "negative-sum game". Retail investors need to fight against hidden costs such as handling fees and dealer control, and more than 90% of them suffer long-term losses.
Profit logic goes against instinct:
Dare to buy when falling (overcome fear), dare to sell when rising (restrain greed), and short positions when weak (fight trading impulse). Most people find it difficult to break through human weaknesses.
2. Survival threshold: the double crushing of information gap and fund management
Cognitive barriers: dealers dominate the market with funds and insider information, and retail investors rely on fragmented information (such as KOL shouting orders) and are easily harvested. Professional capabilities such as on-chain analysis and macroeconomics require long-term accumulation.
Fund life and death line: Full position and leverage trading are extremely risky (e.g., a 10x leverage fluctuation of 10% means liquidation), and the average survival period of contract traders is less than 3 months.
3. Psychological loss: chronic consumption of loneliness and emotions
Trading directly impacts emotions: self-blame for losses, regret for missing out, and worry about gains and losses in profits. Long-term high pressure can easily lead to insomnia and social isolation. Market cases of sudden wealth amplify the "survivor bias" and cover up the truth that "one general's success is the result of the sacrifice of thousands of people".
4. Sustainability challenges: strategy iteration and uncontrollable risks
Strategy timeliness: market rules change rapidly, technical indicators may fail in reverse, and strategies need to be continuously optimized.
Macro risks: policy supervision, technological changes (such as Web3.0), and black swan events (such as exchange explosions) can instantly destroy accumulation.
Cognitive reconstruction: admit that trading is a "probability game", focus on risk control, and give up predicting the market.
Ability foundation: master basic analysis (technical aspects + on-chain data + macroeconomics), and use simulation disks to verify strategies.
Rational investment: Use spare money to trade, set profit targets and exit mechanisms, and avoid greedy withdrawals.
Conclusion
Trading for a living is suitable for very few people - they need to have anti-human discipline, continuous learning ability and stress resistance. For most people, it is more practical to invest in mainstream currencies and accumulate capital by deepening their main business.
In the cryptocurrency world, “survival is a life or death struggle”, and “staying alive” is more important than “getting rich quickly”.
