Current price of XRP: As of June 2, 2025, XRP is trading at approximately $2.17, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.78 billion according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Analysis of Collapse Probability:
1 Bearish Technical Indicators:
◦ Technical analysis indicates bearish patterns such as double tops and ascending wedges, suggesting a potential price drop to support levels at $1.94 or even $1.76 in the short term.
◦ A rounded bottom pattern may be forming, suggesting that the price could find historical support between $2.00-2.17, but breaking this area could lead to further declines.
◦ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 43, reflecting increasing downward momentum, with the possibility of continued pressure if the support level at $2.00 is broken.
2 Decrease in network activity:
◦ The number of active addresses on XRP has decreased by more than 90% since March 2025, indicating a decline in demand for transactions. This drop in activity may negatively impact the price, especially with a 'top-heavy' market structure where new investors tend to sell quickly during volatility.
3 Futures Contracts and Funding Rates:
◦ Open interest (OI) in futures contracts has decreased by 9.6% to $3.2 billion, reflecting a decline in trader confidence. Neutral funding rates indicate a lack of directional momentum, which may lead to price volatility or continued sideways movement.
4 General Market Factors:
◦ XRP is under pressure due to broader market declines, including drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with macroeconomic concerns such as tariffs imposed by President Trump, which may reduce appetite for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Price Predictions:
• Short-term (May-June 2025): XRP may face a drop to $1.94-1.76 if it fails to maintain the support level at $2.00. However, breaking the resistance level at $2.27 could return the price to an upward trajectory towards $3.00.
• Long-term (2025-2030): Predictions range from optimistic to cautious. Some analysts see XRP reaching $5-17 by 2025 if regulatory breakthroughs occur (such as ETF approvals) and institutional adoption increases. However, more conservative forecasts suggest prices between $1.02-3.60 by 2029 if volatility continues.
Factors Influencing Potential Collapse:
• Decline in transparency: Ripple's decision to end quarterly market reports has raised concerns about transparency, which could affect investor confidence.
• Focus on RLUSD: Ripple's shift towards its stablecoin RLUSD may reduce interest in XRP, causing downward pressure.
• Regulatory developments: Despite settling the SEC lawsuit with a $50 million fine, the ongoing appeal from the SEC could hinder growth.
• Escrow releases: The release of 1 billion XRP monthly from escrow may create ongoing selling pressure, limiting significant price increases.
Summary: XRP is subject to short-term volatility with the potential to drop to $1.94 or lower if current support levels are broken. However, fundamental factors such as institutional adoption, potential ETF approvals, and a final settlement of the SEC case could support a long-term recovery. Investors are advised to monitor key support levels at $2.05-2.10 and resistance at $2.27-2.34 for informed decisions.
Note: This information is not investment advice. The digital market is highly volatile, and thorough research and risk assessment should be conducted before investing.
